Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Monday that his government considers the East Jerusalem neighborhood of Har Homa as an inseparable part of Israel and will continue to build there. This comes just a few days before US Vice President Dick Cheney’s arrival. America sees continued building in the settlements and East Jerusalem as an obstacle to peace, and Cheney will definitely make that point when he arrives Saturday. So why is Olmert seemingly picking a fight with the US Vice President?
I think Olmert has found himself in a position in which he has to keep Shas inside the coalition in order for him to survive politically. Nothing else seems to be sticking: Annapolis [the sides are talking but nobody really expects a deal either side can implement]; electoral reform [nothing serious moving here]. Poll show that if general elections were held now, Olmert would lose and Kadima would crash. Now Shas is not monolithic, contrary to popular belief, with Yishai pulling out of the government and Attias trying to stay in. The real question is what Ovadia thinks, and Ovadia and Olmert are tight.
To keep Shas in, Olmert has to give them gifts, and keep on giving, like permits for haredi housing, cheap housing because many haredim don’t work, and where do you get cheap housing? Over the green line.
The way I see it Olmert is stuck between a hard place [an implacable Shas] and two very fast moving rocks [the Labor party and the US administration] to stop pandering to Shas and start getting serious about Abbas.
A clash is inevitable, unless Bush, Condi, Cheney find some sort of formula that gives Olmert some leeway so that he can stay in power for now. I guess that’s what Cheney is coming for. Bibi winning an election within the next year will destroy any chance of Bush-Condi achieving even the slightest success in the middle east policy – and no legacy.
What to look out for is how much rope they Americans are going to give Olmert; how much do they think Bibi is a threat [polls show him winning big here]; and if Bibi himself is sending any messages to the US administration about his views for a peace process with the Palestinians.
