Syria’s Bashar Assad, derided as the son even his own father didn’t want to succeed him, is turning out to share many of Hafez’s wily and cautious traits. Despite a series of recent blows to his homeland security (the killings of Hizbullah terror chief Imad Mughniyeh and Syrian military adviser Muhammad Suleiman, the IAF’s destruction of his nascent nuclear plant, and an American Special Forces raid on his border with Iraq), Assad junior is managing to keep a steady hand on the reins of power.

Early intelligence assessments that he would prove a weak and perhaps even quickly disposable successor have been disproved.

Assad Jr. is plainly looking to the long-term. He has accounts to settle with several players in the region, but for the moment he’s playing it cool. And for this, and his indirect talks with Israel, the West, and notably France, have rewarded him with greater acceptance. Continue reading →