The weather is with Hamas

According to the Israel Meteorological Institute there is still a possibility of very light rain in central and southern Israel on Thursday but it will get significantly cooler. On Friday the weather will get fair and slightly warmer, but still cooler than average for this time of the year. On Saturday it will be partly cloudy to clear with a rise in temperatures and a drop in humidity.

But this is not a weather report – it is a crucial element in the diplomatic and operational calculations of the Israeli leadership for the next few days. Continue reading

What next for Israel against Hamas?

Day Four of the Gaza War, and we’re heading into Day 5 with some mixed feelings and a lot of questions.

The shine of the first two days’ heavy aerial bombardment of Gaza is rapidly wearing off with targets running out and Hamas resurgent. The IAF is still attacking rocket crews and tunnels, but increasingly it is bombing buildings it has already bombed previously, what is called “Real Estate Targets” here. For days we’ve been led to believe that IDF ground forces are poised to enter the fray.

But instead:

I’m seeing the IDF start a YouTube channel.

I hear the IDF is starting vlogs and blogs.

I’m seeing pictures of IDF tanks and soldiers massed all around the Gaza Strip – posing for pictures and looking as if they’re preparing for battle.

I’m seeing Israeli diplomats on twitter, SKY and FOX.

I’m seeing local and foreign correspondents broadcasting live pictures of Israeli battle formations from the Gaza border, an area that was on Monday decreed by the IDF as a closed military zone.

I see rockets as far as Beersheba and Kiryat Malachi, and Yavne. Yavne is not “in the south” of the country, it is very firmly in the center.

I see Israel sending in hundreds of tons of humanitarian aid into Gaza – aid likely also going to Hamas fighters.

I hear talk of a 48 hour ceasefire for humanitarian reasons, which will likely lead to a negotiated ceasefire binding both Hamas and Israel, but at the same time Hamas has rebounded from the initial IAF shock and awe operation and firing rockets into central Israel.

What I don’t see is the IDF fighting. In fact I’m seeing the IDF do everything but fight. The IAF is doing the best it can, but as we learned in Lebanon, it cannot finish the job.

What I don’t see is Hamas fighters in their foxholes, or in camouflage waiting in ambush, or positioning snipers and mortar crews. Why? Because they’re doing it far away from the eyes of the media, quietly, secretly, the way it’s supposed to be done. Continue reading

Olmert asks Netanyahu to help explain Israel’s Gaza war

UPDATE: Netanyahu joins Israel’s PR war effort, appearing on FOX News.

Just heard that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert met today with opposition leader Likud MK Binyamin Netanyahu and updated him on the security situation, as is required by law. The Prime Minister’s Office also reports that Olmert asked Netanyahu to step up and help in Israel’s public diplomacy efforts during this round of fighting with Hamas in Gaza.

Netanyahu, a fluent English-speaker with a Harvard degree, is considered the top public speaker in Israel, especially on foreign networks. While Social Affairs Minister Isaac Herzog and President Shimon Peres are no slouches, nobody comes close to Bibi’s clarity and force of argument, regardless of whether one agrees with him or not. Continue reading

In Sderot, eyeing Gaza’s Black Sabbath

David Bouskila had a long and busy Friday night. The workload and
consultations started again very early on Saturday morning. So at about
11:30 a.m., when he finally found a few minutes to rest, he walked into his
bedroom and let his hefty body slump onto the mattress.

The second his head hit the pillow, IAF bombs hit their marks in nearby Gaza
City causing a thunderous sonic boom which shook Bouskila’s home. Sderot’s
new mayor knew it was not a good time to catch some sleep.

David Bouskila

Credit: Sderot media center

Bouskila is speaking on his cell phone to the BBC when I catch up with him.
“We praise the IDF and the government for acting after having been under
rocket attack for over eight years,” he says. Speaking in good English all
the way through the interview, Bouskila spells out the letters of his name
to the BBC reporter on the other end of the line. Continue reading

Likud taunts Livni with Nasrallah-boy

Seems everyone is jumping on the ‘I got a crush on Obama’ video.

After a relatively unknown member of Knesset, Sagiv Asulin of the Likud got a pretty fan to do a spoof of the original Obama video. This one’s actually pretty good. Continue reading

Gaza war weather report

UPDATE: So I was off by one day; I predicted Sunday but the IAF went in Saturday.

According to defense sources, the Israeli cabinet has given the IDF a green light to attack Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip following the end of the ceasefire last week. On Wednesday, Hamas and other Palestinian groups fired some 80 rockets into Southern Israel, causing no injuries but extensive damage.

The defense establishment is not keen for a full ground invasion of the Gaza Strip, preferring instead to rely on a series of measures starting with air attacks on Hamas military installations and senior personnel.

However, for this to be possible, the Israel Air Force needs clearer skies than the cloudy and rainy conditions currently prevailing across the country. It has been raining since Tuesday night in various parts of the country, with heavy cloud cover throughout.

AP reports: Defense officials, speaking on condition on anonymity because they were not permitted to discuss the plans, said the Israeli operation would likely begin with surgical airstrikes against rocket launchers and continue with a land incursion. Current weather conditions are hampering visibility and complicating air force missions, so the operation won’t be launched until the skies clear, they added.

So, while the decision to act against Hamas has been taken, the timing of the start of operations depends largely on the weather.

So here is the weather report for the coming days from the Israel Meteorological Institute:

Forecast for today and tonight:
Local rain from northern Israel to northern Negev. The rain will weaken in the afternoon. The temperatures will be below the average for this time of the year.

Fri.
26/12 Partly cloudy to clear with a slight rise in temperatures but still cooler than usual for the season.

Sat.
27/12 Clear to partly cloudy with an additional rise in temperatures.

Sun.
28/12 Clear with no significant change in temperatures.

Forecast Highs says keep an eye on Sunday.

What’s eating the Israeli driver #2?

“The road was very narrow, but for some reason our driver decided to overtake [the other bus]. People were cut to pieces,” Natalia Gavrilova, a Russian tourist who survived Tuesday’s horrible bus crash near Eilat, said from her hospital bed.

Three factors influence any driving situation: the road, the car and the driver. Newer roads and modern cars are built to be “forgiving” – engineered to account for driver error and to increase the chance that such errors won’t necessarily result in an accident.

But if we are to believe what the surviving passengers aboard the doomed tour bus told the media – that their driver was drag-racing the bus in front of them and generally being aggressive – driver “error” can be ruled out here, and more forgiving engineering probably wouldn’t have made a difference. Continue reading

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