Some thoughts on the situation:
Bibi’s upcoming speech at Bar Ilan: Obama gave a big speech that almost everyone in the world loved. Obama’s Cairo University speech was seen live by hundreds of millions of people. How many people will watch Bibi live? Bibi is to deliver his speech at Bar Ilan University’s BESA Center in Ramat Gan. Bar Ilan University is the bastion of the center right, and Bibi should find an adoring audience there, just as Obama found in Cairo. Bibi will be tailoring his message to the Likud, Bar Ilan is closely associated with the Likud, with the moderate National Religious and secular Right. He wants to be interrupted by applause – when he says Israel wants peace with the Palestinians, but a peace that will not jeopardize Israeli security. He doesn’t want to be interrupted by catcalls from the Knesset plenum. In Bibi’s mind, if anyone can match Obama for rhetorical prowess, for delivery, it’s Bibi. All that’s necessary is a solid stage, a sturdy podium, good air conditioning [that he doesn't sweat], and a receptive audience [definitely not the Knesset]. In 2002 Netanyahu gave a speech to the Likud half of which was devoted to the issue of a Palestinian state. You can read it here. It will be interesting to compare that speech with what Bibi says next Sunday.
America – Israel relations: Now we begin to feel what it’s like to not have everything our way. Obama inherited from George Bush a hated empire, drowning in bloody battles across the world. Hated mostly by Arabs and Muslims. Drowned in wars exclusively with Arabs and Muslims. To improve US relations with the Arab and Muslim world, to extricate his empire, Obama needs to be seen as an honest broker by the Arabs, so he’s squeezing Israel on the settlements and the Gaza blockade.
The more Obama[and Hilary Clinton] squeezes, the better America looks in the eyes of the Arabs. The better Obama looks in the eyes of the Arabs, the worse he looks in Israel, and he runs the risk of pushing Bibi too far away, making the Israeli prime minister popular for standing up to the powerful American president. Obama is already gaining a bad rep here in Israel. His approval ratings in the Arab world go up when they go down in Israel. If American pressure for a two-state solution becomes intolerable, Bibi might ditch some of his right wing coalition partners and team up with Livni and Kadima, but that would really be a worst-case option for Bibi, and he will want to avoid that as much as he can. I wonder if even a Bibi-Livni-Barak coalition would accept the current line on natural growth in the settlements coming out of Washington. And if Bibi creates this kind of coalition, will everyone in his Likud stay, or will they break away, or will he, like Ariel Sharon did to form Kadima?
Gaza: In his Cairo speech, Obama said the situation in Gaza is intolerable, and that the closure is not in Israel’s security interests. So then Netanyahu ordered a discussion on lifting the blockade. But Obama might be a bit naïve over Gaza, as the Army of Islam showed this morning that it is still trying to snatch soldiers. The IDF thwarted a 10-man commando raid whose aim was to kidnap Israeli soldiers. In a firefight 4 gunmen are killed. The army shuts down all the crossings. So is Hamas in control of Gaza? Or are other armed groups, with masters further afield [like Tehran] running around the Gaza Strip plotting their own wars? If Israel lifts the blockade of Gaza and lets in reconstruction aid, Hamas will recover fully from the last war, strengthen its hold of the Strip and Gaza will never go back to the control of the PA. Then what happens with the two-state solution?
Bibi’s plan: Bibi is being dragged into a diplomatic plan, he’s not initiating one. Bibi said he would present a plan to Obama when the two met in DC last month. The two met and no plan was presented. So in the absence of an Israeli plan, Obama embarked on his plan: improve America’s relations with the Arab world. A big part of that plan is to get a final status deal between the Israelis and Palestinians. And for that to happen, the Israelis need to be leaned on.
Lebanese elections: Just a matter of time until the Shiite majority is translated into electoral power; for now, the Christians balked at the last minute and didn’t want to hand over the country to Hizbullah; technically nothing changes Hizbullah will still be part of the government, but it is a defeat for the Iranian camp.
