The views expressed in this column are not necessarily my own. They form part of an exercise in conjecture.

When Avigdor Lieberman becomes Israel’s leader

I asked a few of my friends what they thought Israel would be like if Avigdor Lieberman became Prime Minister some day. One friend said he thought that the day after that happened ten thousand Israelis would leave the country. Really? Did thousands of people immigrate the day after Ariel Sharon became PM? Sharon of Sabra and Shatila. Sharon of the Hilltop movement. Was Sharon any less radical then than Lieberman is perceived today? And where would they go, these tens of thousands? America – where the won’t find jobs? And what will they do? Will they ask for asylum from a country in turmoil, from a country finally overrun by a popular uprising movement which demanded a strong leader, someone who could take firm hold of a country rapidly spiraling out of control. Out of control with hordes of dark, dangerous Africans roaming our streets, smashing shop windows, smashing old ladies on their heads, and taking our Jewish daughters away from us. Out of control with hordes of Arabs walking out streets smashing shop windows and taking our Jewish daughters away from us – thus threatening our demographic supremacy. Out of control with foreign-funded political organizations acting on behalf of enemy governments against our nationalist interests. A country whose soldiers can’t defend its citizens without fear of being arrested abroad. A country where only the secular carry the burden of heavy taxation so that the religious can continue not to work, and not to teach their children subjects that will prepare them to one day join the workforce. A country whose governments never heed warnings and always fail to plan ahead. Where bomb shelters and fire services are still not operational despite countless wars and Comptroller reports. A country where people die all the time because their leaders never take responsibility for their actions. Out of control. Unfair. Unjust. Unsustainable.

So in the next election, sometime towards the end of 2011, a large number of Israelis will vote for the party that promises to stop the train so that they can all get off. Political observers are no longer characterizing the possibility of Avigdor Lieberman’s victory in the next elections as science fiction. Just as the Likud won 27 mandates in the 2008 elections, one less than Kadima, Yisrael Beteinu could potentially sweep up the right-wing mandates in the next election, become the largest faction in the Knesset [or at least the faction most likely to succeed in forming a governing coalition] and thus be asked by the President to form the next government, with Lieberman at its helm. What then? Well, that depends on the type of coalition Lieberman puts together. There will surely be much pressure in the staunchly nationalist Likud [most likely without Netanyahu] to join the coalition, as a moderating force, especially in foreign affairs [something like Labor is to the Likud now – with Defense Minister Ehud Barak effectively acting as Foreign Minister]. Those in the Likud with strong anti-democratic sentiments [Danon, Hotovely, Regev, Levin et al] will be elevated above the old-school, democratic nationalists [Rivlin, Eitan]. With the traditional Zionist Left disintegrating, it is the new anti-Zionist Left and far-Right movements who are dominating the political dialogue. It just happens to be that the far-Right is currently in government and is more likely to succeed than the far-Left. Somehow, pro-democracy is now taken to mean anti-Zionist, and pro-Zionist is now taken to mean anti-democracy. The center is left quiet.

When he wins the next election, Lieberman will want to reward his traditional power base as soon as he can, and will likely do this by declaring that anyone who is even remotely Jewish is now officially Jewish. He will scrap the Ministry of Religious Services and move its responsibilities to the Interior Ministry, where he will install an Yisrael Beteinu minister who will approve conversions, marriages, divorces, and burial services for all Jews, regardless of denomination. Hey, what could be more democratic than that? Hundreds of thousands of Russian immigrants and their offspring will be declared Jewish, and allowed to be married anywhere they choose, buried anywhere they choose, and their children will no longer be considered goyim. And to hell with what the haredim think. Isn’t that the epitome of human rights? Aren’t human rights a central democratic value? Politically, this move naturally means that Lieberman won’t be able to include the haredi parties into his coalition, and obviously the Left-wing and Arab parties won’t sit in his government either, and neither will Kadima, which will want to act as an opposition [Labor and Meretz will disappear]. So, if Lieberman has no democratic option of putting together a coalition under the normal rules of this country’s parliamentary system, and nobody else will be able to form a coalition either, the President will be forced to call new elections, which Lieberman will win again. And since we have no constitution to suspend, Lieberman could invoke the emergency laws instated by David Ben Gurion at the establishment of the state [and never yet repealed] and rule Israel under emergency powers.

Sounds impossible, incredible, totally in the realm of science fiction? Of course it does. Except that things like this happen in the Middle East regularly, so why should we be any different? Isn’t our ultimate dream to be a true part of our neighborhood? To eat hummus in Damascus? Who said we have to be the only democracy in the Middle East, that we have to be forever different? If we weren’t a democracy we could seal our borders against economic migrants, infiltrators, smugglers, and refugees [everyone's a refugee these days!]. If we weren’t a democracy we could force the haredim to work and study English and Math at school. And we could force them to go to the army. If we weren’t a democracy we could impose curfews on south Tel-Aviv, Bat Yam, Safed, Karmiel, and Eilat so that Africans and Arabs can’t roam the streets stalking our vulnerable Jewish girls. And if we weren’t a democracy we could finally make peace with the Arabs, who would be much more comfortable with us as a dictatorship, as something they can relate to. We could give the Palestinians parts of the Galilee, and parts of East Jerusalem. And if they don’t like it, tough. That’s just the way its going to be.

Clearly democracy is sending us in the wrong direction, and is a foreign, unwanted element in the Middle East. Democracy brings moral and nationalist decay. Democracy brings radical Islamists to power. Gaza has fallen; Lebanon has fallen; Yemen is falling; Syria and Egypt are holding on with increasing brutality; Jordan’s monarch dissolves his cabinet as often as the last Tsar of Russia; Iraq is a shambles posing as a democracy and will fall to Iran as soon as the Americans leave; Saudi Arabia is in eternal regression, and Iran’s rulers didn’t even break a sweat putting down a popular uprising. And so maybe, just maybe, after some sixty-two years of democracy, the Jewish state has reached the stage where the parallel tracks of our inner tensions and the dictatorial neighborhood we’re in have converged to a point where, if Israel really wants to coexist peacefully in the Middle East, it needs to scuttle democracy in favor of a more indigenous and manageable form of government. If peace is impossible for the next few generations, as Lieberman says, then so is a Jewish AND Democratic Israel impossible. If relocating hundreds of thousands of Jews from the West Bank into the Green Line is tantamount to national suicide, then maybe its time to abandon the dream of two states for two peoples. Likewise, if the Palestinians will never give up on their ‘Right of Return’, as they say they won’t, then they too are giving up on the two-state solution.

So if the two sides are giving up on the two-state solution, and we are headed into a bi-national state, then who better than Avigdor Lieberman to look after our interests? Who better to articulate our red lines? Who better to ensure our racial purity by diluting it across the Jewish spectrum? Who better to make sure Israeli Jews retain supremacy in a state of all its peoples? Only Lieberman has so far drawn clear lines in the sand. He’s done this by advocating loyalty oaths, total obedience and fealty to the state, no undermining, no delegitimizing, no receiving funds from foreign governments and organizations.

It’s no coincidence that pro-democracy events are happening all over, well, all over Tel-Aviv. The problem with these protests is that they are being organized and attended by members of the Left, who also organize protests against perceived racism on the part of economically weak Israelis against the influx of African economic migrants into their neighborhoods. So far it is only the organized Left that is vociferous against Liberman. Here and there a marginalized Likud minister like Dan Meridor says something; or a Labor minister like Herzog says something. But these politicians have no real political base, and their ilk are on the decline. The silent majority is too busy trying to pay its mortgage to give too much attention to the slow slide away from democracy. Most people want a Jewish majority here; and they would like Israel to remain a democracy, theoretically. But they won’t take to the streets to defend it. They’ve got their minds on their money and their money on their minds.

So maybe the time for Lieberman has come naturally, inevitably, like evolution. If we’re naturally moving away from democracy, because, let’s face it people, being the only democracy in the Middle East is so passe, and getting us nowhere fast, then perhaps Lieberman’s time has come.

amirm@jpost.com