UPDATE: Well, it looks like Lapid has chosen not to join Kadima. I guess that means he’ll most likely fail to achieve anything of real significance in his political career. Pity.

Here’s the original blog post:

So what will Yair Lapid do? Is he for himself, or is he for the greater public?

It seems as if the man from Channel 22 has landed himself in a Catch 22.

If, as he says, he wants to change the electoral system in Israel and thus create a more equitable relationship between the ultra-Orthodox and the secular middle class, he will have to swallow his pride, put his ego aside, and join the struggling Kadima party. Polls show that only by joining with Kadima, and bringing his purported 8 to 15 Knesset mandates as a dowry, will Lapid’s entrance into the political arena significantly alter the left-right balance in the Knesset’s political alignment.

On the other hand, all indications are, so far, that Lapid intends to create his own party, possibly making use of the now-defunct architecture of his late father’s Shinui party. If he does set up his own party, polls indicate he could garner anywhere between 8 and 15 mandates, which he would mostly take from Kadima. If he does this, he inserts yet another political party into the already crowded center-left parliamentary bloc, further diluting its power, and lessening its political impact. The Likud will most likely form the next government, taking its pic of coalition partners; and not much is likely to change. Lapid will be left in the opposition camp and likely not fulfill his great potential.

So what will he do? What should he do?

On the first question, only he and his close advisors know. What has been reported is that Kadima’s officials have asked, no, begged, Lapid to join their party. They realize that if he goes on his own, Kadima’s in serious trouble. Kadima, the largest party in the Knesset, is increasingly showing signs of serious stress and implosion.

What should he do? Well, that depends on what your political outlook is. If, like me, you are part of the secular middle-class that is finding it increasingly difficult to make a living, save money, buy an apartment, or plan for the future in this country, you will probably want Lapid to join Kadima, and together with them, work to change the electoral and system of government in this country, with or without a coalition with the Likud. And another thing: I think it would be wise for Lapid to enter Kadima in the number 2 or 3 slot and get some legislative experience in the Knesset, and possibly even as a deputy minister. He has a lot of ideas, but no legislative experience, and this is not the kind of thing I want to see in the Knesset I pay for. Mavericks who get things done yes, but also level-headed legislators who can make long-term policies. Unfortunately, too many of our current legislators are interested more in short-term gains and media exposure than the long-term good of the country.

So, in essence, Lapid is faced with a Catch 22 situation: On the one hand he can do what might seem best for his own immediate political career and capitalize on the goodwill of the people [as predicted in the polls], or he can do what is undoubtedly in the best interests of the country and join Kadima [thus making good on his promise to change the electoral system]. If he goes it alone, he might enjoy temporary glory, but end up as just another flash in the political pan [like his late father]. If he joins Kadima, he forgoes a lot of glory and power, in favor of long-term stability and real legislative experience.

The longer he takes to decide, the more the public is exposed to his indecision, and the more they will doubt his abilities. His decision will tell us exactly what stuff he’s made of.