Some thoughts on the situation 18/01/2011

1. A senior ranking IDF officer has told reporters the following two things:

a). The army is very loathe to demolish the illegal settlement outpost of Migron by the court-appointed deadline of March because it “will cause a serious backlash from the right wing and possibly change the security balance in the West Bank.”
In other words: we can carry out the orders of the High Court but it’s going to cause a major upheaval and so may not even be worth the trouble.

b). The IDF knows that there are several plots by Palestinians to kidnap and kill IDF soldiers as well as civilians.
If this happens again, sources tell me, Israel will go to war against whoever abducts its soldiers. This message has been delivered to the usual suspects. So, it seems, the usual suspects are trying to start a war.

2. Russia says it will block any UN oil embargo on Iran; is criticizing the latest sanctions against Iran; and refuses to remove a ‘no-use-of-force clause from a resolution on Syria.
The Russians and Chinese will not let the Iranian regime fall because they feel that removing Iran as a threat will enable the US to control the Middle East’s oil reserves: the world economy’s oxygen supply line. They won’t let Iran fall because that will make it easier for the US to be the world’s only superpower. The Russians probably feel that if Syria’s Bashar Assad falls, Iran’s position will be further weakened, and they don’t want. Ditto the Chinese, who said today that the Arab monitoring team in Syria was “effective.” The Russians and Chinese don’t care about Syrian blood. They don’t even care about Arab oil. They care only about the ‘great game’ against the US. The Arabs should remember that.

3. Stop saying “we support Israel’s right to exist,” it’s irritating. Why do people still feel the need to say that? Isn’t it a given?

4. Kadima has just announced party primaries. Kadima needs to come up with a message, sharpen it, find a few new stars, and decide on who is going to be its leader. It can’t carry on like this, with constant, vicious, and daily attacks on Livni’s leadership. Either she wins a second mandate and everyone shuts up, or she loses, moves down the list [or out the door] and someone new takes over. And it needs to do it soon because Lapid’s new party is going to take a big chunk out of its electorate.

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