Forecast Israel 2012

What’s in store for Israel in 2012?

Will Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities? And will the attack succeed? What will Iran’s retaliation look like? Will there be Knesset elections in Israel, and what effect will this past summer’s social protests have on the country’s political landscape? What will become of Egypt and Syria, Israel’s large and unstable neighbors? What of the peace process with the Palestinians, now that Hamas and Fatah seem to be moving closer to a unity government? What of the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Sinai – a badlands awash with weapons, terrorists, and economic migrants? And who will win the US Presidential elections towards the end of the year, and how big a part will Israel ultimately play in the campaigns of both Republicans and Democrats?

So many questions and possibilities present themselves in the coming year. Here are some trends I believe are worth looking out for in the coming year. Continue reading

With leaders like these, Israel’s zealots will win

Leadership. You either have it or you don’t. The following Israeli leaders don’t.

1. A day after prime time Channel 2 TV news shows a segment about a little 8 year old girl being spat on by religious extremists in Beit Shemesh, the Israeli Minister of Culture and Sport, Limor Livnat [Likud] goes on national radio and says that in majority religious towns, gender segregated public buses should be allowed. What we have is a minister in the Israeli government going against a Supreme Court ruling saying that all gender segregation on public transportation is illegal. Continue reading

Israel’s [real] statement against European condemnation

Israel on Wednesday accused four European countries of meddling in her affairs and warned that they risked making themselves “irrelevant.”

The communiqué came a day after Britain, France, Germany and Portugal called on Israelis and Palestinians to present proposals on territory and security to the Quartet. The Europeans called on Israel to reverse its settlement building plans, saying that they were illegal, sent a “devastating message” and threatened the prospects for a two-state solution.

In an exclusive for my blog, I’ve gotten my hands on a “leaked copy” of the original draft of the Foreign Ministry statement. The statement that was released to the media did not contain the [text in parentheses] Continue reading

Make them a threat they can’t refuse

Washington is reportedly backing down on its threat to suspend aid to the Palestinian Authority over its unilateral bid to join UN organizations instead of entering into direct talks with Israel. Jerusalem is reportedly backing this policy.

From the Los Angeles Times:

The appropriations bill won’t penalize the Palestinian Authority for joining UNESCO. But aid would be cut off if the Palestinians joined another U.N. group. Officials noted that funds could still be provided under a waiver from Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton saying aid continuation was in the national interest of the United States. Robert Danin, a former U.S. official in the Middle East, said the appropriators’ move appears to reflect their judgment that although the threat of a cutoff might help persuade the Palestinians to stop their U.N. strategy, “it’s a more potent tool when it’s threatened than when it’s actually carried out.”

Continue reading

Love in the time of Uranium

“America’s commitment and my commitment to Israel and Israel’s security is unshakeable. It is unshakeable. I am proud to say that no U.S. administration has done more in support of Israel’s security than ours. None. Don’t let anybody else tell you otherwise. It is a fact. We are determined to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. And that’s why, rest assured, we will take no options off the table.” – US President Barack Obama, December 17, 2011

Continue reading

Songs of the Hilltop Youth – Jewish extremist gangster rap

With all the brouhaha about price tag attacks and the hilltop youth over the past few days I thought it would be a good exercise to get to know these people a little better, get into their minds, so to speak.

You want to know how the Hilltop Youth feel about Arabs? How they see secular Israelis who live in Tel-Aviv? How they feel about the media? Continue reading

The Jewish Self-Destruct Button

The fact that 30 attackers could break into an IDF base in a military zone in Palestinian areas without the IDF having any prior intelligence, vandalize the base, damage IDF equipment, knock a few soldiers around, and walk out scot free, as if they had just won a battle, is not a scandal. That’s already happened before. Two attackers were arrested in the Epfraim Brigade attack. Only two. And one of them ‘escaped.’ That’s the scandal.

The fact that Jewish attackers can ambush an IDF vehicle carrying a Brigade Commander and a Deputy Brigade Commander, open the vehicle door, and throw a concrete block at the Deputy Commander’s head, is not a scandal. That’s also happened before. What’s a scandal is that these Israel Defense Forces officers didn’t put a bullet between the eyes of the man who dared to open the door of their armored car. Continue reading

What of Syria’s unconventional weapons if Assad falls?

Once again, I apologize for being the voice of doom and gloom, but I sincerely hope that Israel is thinking about what will happen to Syria’s unconventional weapons if and when Bashar Assad is removed from power. Not that I think Assad will use them against us, that would be most unwise. But as former Mossad chief Efraim Halevy said this morning on Army Radio, Israel is extremely concerned about who or what takes control of these weapons if and when Assad goes. Halevy made the point that “very advanced weaponry” from Libya has recently made its way to “sensitive locations.” Halevy added that the situation in Syria would become extremely uncertain and chaotic should the Syrian army disintegrate. Continue reading

It’s official: In 50 years time Israel won’t work

It’s official: we’re screwed.

In an exclusive story released today in Hebrew, Israel Radio published a report compiled by the Central Bureau of Statistics which posits interesting forecasts of Israel’s population makeup in 50 years time [the year 2059].

The research was commissioned by the Treasury’s Budget Department. Continue reading

Netanyahu and Obama are running against each other

Some thoughts on the situation

1. Silvan Shalom, the Likud’s number 2 man, had no idea that PM Netanyahu was planning to bring forward the Likud primaries date. He was caught completely by surprise. And just for that, he doesn’t deserve to be Likud leader. In this profession, and in this neighborhood, if you’re not constantly trying to politically or militarily outmaneuver your opponents, chances are they will get you. The wolf and the sheep have not laid down together yet here. If Shalom doesn’t know that by now, he’ll never know it, and he can’t lead the Likud, or this country. Continue reading

The future [of the Middle East] is murder

Man, this Arab Awakening, Arab Spring, Islamic Winter or whatever you’re being paid to call it, is murder. Freedom is, as always, being paid in blood. And the ones bleeding now, the brave young free Arabs, are serving up their states to arrogant Muslim extremists on a silver platter. And what happens after the Muslims take over?

As Leonard Cohen says, “I’ve seen the future brother, it is murder.”

Everywhere I look I see murder; Continue reading

A parable about Democracy in the new South Africa

When the CAPS replaced the COPS

In the not-too-distant future, violent crime, armed robbery and house break-ins all but disappeared from the scene in South Africa, and especially in the formerly crime-ridden metropolis of Johannesburg. The Community Active Protection association – a private security organization that had arisen from the gloom and had been protecting the wealthy homeowners in Johannesburg’s well-to-do suburbs – gradually found themselves out of regular work. The CAP, as they are known, effectively took over the task of fighting violent crime away from the ineffective South African Police Services, or SAPS [aka the COPS]. Continue reading

Some thoughts about air travel

Is it really necessary to have your seat in the upright position during takeoff and landing? Or are they just telling us that to assert control over the passengers, using an arbitrary thing like the position of a seat to see if we obey? It’s a classic example of the 1% controlling the 99% with a simple mind control technique. Tonight on my flight from Tel-Aviv to Addis Ababa the man sitting to my left had his seat back, not all the way, but still back, on landing, and we landed OK. Continue reading

Protocols of the elders of Mossad

Protocols of a meeting of the former directors of Israel’s foreign intelligence service, the Mossad at a cafe near Ramat Hasharon.

In attendance: E.H, S.S, M.D, D.Y.

Gentlemen, it is clear that we have reached the point of no return. The forces of evil are upon us, the enemy is at the gate. He is strong, armed to the teeth, and is determined to throw our tiny nation into the sea. The mission before us is the most fateful one we have embarked on since the creation of the state in 1948, and we cannot blink, we cannot shirk our responsibility to protect the Jewish people. While we are no longer in active duty, all of us have taken a life-long oath to defend our people and crush our enemies. Now is the time to act, old men, time to dust off the cobwebs and sharpen our daggers. The old men of the Mossad are saddling up for one last charge against the forces of evil. Continue reading

If Iran goes nuclear

Last October I wrote an analysis called Stop worrying and love the Iranian bomb, in which I argued that since it seems like the West has failed to stop Iran’s nuclear development, America won’t attack Iran, and Israel will not attack Iran’s nuclear facilities alone, it was time for the Israeli government to start preparing the public for what life would be like when we are, ‘according to foreign sources,’ no longer the only nuclear power in the Middle East. Continue reading

‘Superhero’ spymaster now a thorn in government’s side

Former Mossad chief, now chief thorn in government's side

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking cabinet support for a military strike on Iran, the Haaretz newspaper reported on Wednesday, after days of speculation about plans for an attack. The report, citing a senior Israeli official, said Netanyahu was working with Defense Minister Ehud Barak to win support from skeptical members of the cabinet who oppose attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

The above quote is making its way around the world’s media. It bothers me that the whole world now knows what’s going on deep inside the top Israeli leadership concerning the issue of an attack on Iran, no less. But there you have it. A few days before the Haaretz report, Yediot Aharonot reported that Barak and Netanyahu had already decided to attack Iran, without consulting the other ministers.The Israeli government is furious that Haaretz even reported on the inner deliberations of the Israeli ministers. Now everybody is talking about this issue: should Israel attack Iran before the winter clouds make it difficult for our planes to find their targets? Are Barak and Netanyahu sufficiently experienced to carry out this fateful mission? Is the Israeli home front ready and capable to withstand an Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation? Should the Israeli public be readied to live with the Iranian bomb, or is there no way on earth the Jewish people should ever let radical Islamists arm themselves with nuclear weapons? Should our planes swoop in from the east or the north? What music should the pilots listen to the night before, something rhythmic or something soothing? Metallica or Mozart? Continue reading

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