The truth about our next war is that if it does break out, there will be another war after it. Neither side is going to really win, win in the old-school sense of the word. And in the absence of closure, there will be another round, and another round.

The truth about our next war is that we won’t win. All the bad guys need to do is stay alive, survive, hold out – and they will claim victory. There will be many around the world who agree with them. That’s our enemies’ logic, and their plan. We will hurt them very, very badly, but we won’t “win” in the classic sense of the term. We won’t win because there is nothing to win: there is no High Command bunker to storm, no king to capture, no castle to plant our flag on. None of our enemies will admit defeat nor will they sign a declaration of unconditional surrender. They would rather die. And we will oblige them. The best we can hope for is to kill very senior terror leaders. That will give us some good victory shots and make us feel like we’re winning. But there will be others that take their place, and they won’t stop attacking us.

The truth about our next war is that since we know we can’t win, and they know they can’t win, what both sides are actually trying to achieve is the perception of victory. We’re fighting over “the victory picture” that will give us the sense that we’ve actually accomplished something. Our enemies also know they can’t “win” – they can’t destroy us, they’ll never drive us out of here, and they’ll never plant their flag on the Knesset roof. So they’re going for their “victory shots” – downing our planes, blowing up our tanks, lynching our soldiers, raining rockets on our cities.

And when both sides feel that they’ve gotten a sufficient number of “victory shots” they’ll be ready to talk about a ceasefire deal. And just before the ceasefire deal goes into effect, they’ll try get that one last victory shot.

At the end we’ll say we won, and they’ll say they won. We both win, we both lose. And the debate will go on.

The truth about our next war is that we’re going to have to step up to the plate and take care of ourselves and our neighbors. The authorities will do the best they can, but the truth about our next war is that the home front has not been sufficiently prepared for the barrage of rockets we’re going to face. Not even close.

And that’s the hardest truth of all. Just ask Matan Vilnai. He knows. Our leaders have been rattling our sabers, and they might well be justified in doing so. But they have not spoken to us. They have not told us to prepare for blood, sweat and tears. And that’s the truth.

The truth, then, about our next war, is that it’s going to come down to us. Are we going to flee, scurry, argue and complain, or are we going to grin and bare it? When the rockets rain down on us, are we going to panic, or are we going to stick it out patiently and courageously? Are we capable of taking a deep breath, of being disciplined and helpful to others? Do we have what it takes to dodge rockets for as long as it takes? I think we are. We better be.

The truth about our next war is that it might not even happen; and if God forbid it does, I think we’ll be ok.

Money

Power

Enough is enough. Instead of boosting our confidence as the war clouds gather, the government is undermining our confidence.

This is not what Israelis want to hear now. Now as our region implodes, political Islam rises, our trading partners in Europe sink, and war with Iran looms, what Israelis want to hear is that our soldiers are being trained, that our army has the necessary tools to get the job done, any and every job done; that our economy is sound, and is growing steadily and slowly; that our pensions are safe, and that our ministries are working in harmony toward a common goal: strengthening our tiny, beleaguered nation and keeping her safe and prosperous.

That’s what we want to hear. And that’s what Netanyahu should get done. That’s the balance that the PM needs to strike between security needs and budget constraints. Set a budget, and shut everybody up. Work it out, so that they can get to work, instead of making us feel as if there is no captain at the helm. The current spectacle of an army refusing to accept the budget imposed on it by the Finance Ministry [because it's unrealistic and doesn't take into account the changing nature of the region] and the Finance Ministry refusing to accept that the army refuses to accept the budget – has to end now. In a democracy, the army does what the government tells it to do, not the other way round. But in a democracy with unique and acute security challenges, the army has to know that it has a supportive government who understand security and who gives it the financial backing it needs.

Right now, with both sides left to their own devices, there is no money, and there is no security. And that keeps us up at night. The army has cancelled the home front defense drill planned for later in the year. This is wrong. Israelis are worried about the consequences of massive rocket attack on cities should there be a fight with Iran. We need this drill, badly. And we need a new minister for home front defense to be named, immediately – as the last one has upped and left us in the lurch.

So Mr. Prime Minister, it’s time to get involved. Fix this, it’s what we pay you for.

Let’s take score so far:

While foreign sources credit Israel with planting the Stuxnet computer worm that forced a long delay in the operations of the Natanz nuclear facility, Iran has struggled to do significant damage to Israel’s computer infrastructure, even though its hackers are reportedly trying very hard.

Several Iranian nuclear and military facilities, including a factory for the production of long-range rockets, have been blown up. Dozens of very senior Iranian Revolutionary Guards commanders have been killed in these explosions, and others have died when their military transport planes mysteriously crashed.

Even Iran’s drive to arm Hezbollah and the terrorist organizations in Gaza has run into difficulties. Iran’s planes and ships have been intercepted in Turkey, Cyprus, Nigeria and other places. Its weapons convoys have been bombed in Sudan, and its smugglers have been killed in Sinai.

Even though its proxies do have more rockets than most conventional armies, Iran wants Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah to have much, much more.

Iran’s nuclear scientists have been dropping like flies, while Iranian attempts at retaliation [against Israeli targets] have failed spectacularly. And while there has been no physical evidence left on the scenes of the assassinations of Iranian scientists, this week’s failed hits in India, Thailand and Georgia have produced a plethora of clues: traceable explosive material, traceable phone calls, real passports, photographs, addresses, names, airline tickets etc etc

But worst of all for the plotters, an entire Iranian hit team [minus two amputated legs] has been captured in Bangkok and will surely undergo vigorous interrogation. It’s ringleader has been arrested in Malaysia [while buying a ticket to Tehran] and is likely to be deported back to Thailand.

The operation to kill the wife of an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi and a similar attack in Tibilisi, Georgia also failed. Now the Indian special police is all over this case, and together with Thailand, is revewing all the visas given to Iranian and Lebanese nationals over the past few years. That could shuffle things up substantially for the Iranians and Hezbollah who hope to operate in these Asian countries. India and Thailand could also get very angry at Iran, and this could put more economic pressure on Tehran.

Although unconfirmed, an alleged attempt to assassinate Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Singapore has also been foiled.

So, to sum up: scores of Iranian military and nuclear officials dead, scores of weapons shipments siezed, Iranian hit teams apprehended, and plots thwarted and failed.

No Israeli agents killed or captured, no Israeli officials assassinated, no Israeli diplomatic missions destroyed.

Sounds ok so far, but all of this is misleading. The real game is the continuing development of the Iranian nuclear military program. It will take, unfortunately, more than a shadow war to stop that. For that, the war will have to come out of the shadows and into the stark light.

My wife has been asking me to go and get our gas masks already. I gave mine back a few years ago when I was told to give them back, and haven’t made the effort to pick up new ones. I’m existentially lazy that way. But now my wife insists I get them back. And who am I to argue?

Because I was looking to justify my existential apathy, I searched for like-minded souls. I enquired around the office if people had their gas masks – not in an alarming way, but in passing, casually, you know, like in, “pass the salt, and do you have a gas mask?” And, lo and behold, nobody did. Some people knew where to get them, but the sense I get from my coworkers is that they’re not rushing off to the ACE hardware store [where you can apparently pick them up]. So back to my exposed face. Now that my wife and I have moved apartments, I first have to go to the Interior Ministry to change the address on my ID card, and only THEN can I go and pick up a new gas mask. What a drag. Does anyone know where else we could get them? Can’t we just order them online, and get them delivered? I remember a while back that the government had outsourced the collection and distribution of gas masks to the Katz Delivery Company. Are they still around?

We reported this week that the government has run out money for gas masks, so has run out of gas masks, so if we don’t go get them now, we won’t be able to get them after the end of the month at all. But if the government has run out of money for gas masks, isn’t that a signal that they’re not taking it too seriously either? I mean, if the GOVERNMENT is not coming up with the resources to finance the production of more gas masks, then surely it’s not a priority for them. I mean, even the Minister of Home Front Defense has just announced that everything was in order so he’s leaving for China. So if the minister responsible for gas masks and bomb shelters and emergency stores and life under war just gets up and leaves, I can assume that everything is in order, there is nothing to worry about. He wouldn’t leave if the job was only half done, would he? He’s a minister in the Israeli government for Moses’ sake. I trust him.

Not that any of this has anything to do with nuclear war against Iran. You don’t need to be a nuclear scientist to figure out that gas masks won’t do any good during a nuclear explosion. So if it’s not about Iran, it must be about the non-nuclear, non-conventional response we could get hit with if we attack Iran’s nuclear facilities [before they produce a bomb]. Panetta says it could happen soon. Ehud Barak says later will be too late. Everyone is saying that a war is coming. So maybe it’s about Syrian chemical weapons, or maybe Hezbollah has them?

But seriously now, I don’t want to bury my head in the sand, and I don’t think you should either. I don’t want to cause panic; I’d rather cause preparedness.

Many readers of this blog have told me to lighten up, be more positive, more optimistic, talk about some happy things. I’ll get to that, I promise. But at this point in time, I report it as I see it. I just don’t think Bibi and Barak are going to put the fate of Israel as they see it in the hands of Obama. Bibi and Barak think the Iranian nuclear program is an existential issue and not just because the Ayatollahs may use the bomb against us, but also because the Saudis will get it, then the Turks will get it, then the Egyptians and Jordanians will get it, and then it’s Sunni versus Shia in nuclear war, and these guys will nuke each other eventually, for sure, and we’ll be right in the middle of it. I think many Israelis feel that a nuclear Iran is just a nightmare, and attacking Iran before they go nuclear is also a nightmare, but a lesser nightmare. And I think that if it comes down to war, Israelis will pay the price to set the Iranians back. But nobody is preparing us for the brass tacks of all this. The guys at the top are talking about war, but they’re not preparing the home front for ensuing onslaught.

My point in writing this kind of stuff, again and again, is that I feel there is a criminal lack of information coming from the government about what awaits us: if we do attack, then what might happen, what can we expect; if we don’t bomb them and they get the bomb, what might happen, what to expect. And I feel that Vilnai’s departure to China also sends the wrong signal to the populace..people are asking themselves: What does he know that we don’t?

Creative Commons. IDF Spokesperson's Unit

Voice of Israel from Jerusalem,

Shalom, the time is now 6 am and here is the news,

in the studio, this is Rivki Dangot,

Soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces on land, sea, and air are engaging enemy forces in Iran, Lebanon, Syria, Gaza, and in Judea and Samaria. Border Police forces, together with units of the Givati Brigade are engaging Global Jihad and Hamas forces in the Sinai Peninsula. Overnight, air, land, and sea forces, as well as long-range missiles fired from land and sea struck deep into enemy territory in Iran and have, in some instances, recorded significant successes against the nuclear facilities of that country. Israeli forces have also been met with heavy resistance, from air defenses over Iranian airspace as well as naval units in the Arabian sea. Heavy artillery exchanges are continuing throughout the Golan Heights between the Golan Formation and elements of the Syrian army loyal to President Bashar Al-Assad. Ground assault forces, including elements of the 366th Armored Division and the Yahalom Combat Engineering unit have advanced into central Gaza City, where heavy fighting has been reported. Israeli Police Special Forces have surrounded Shlomi in the north and are in a tense standoff with a Hezbollah cell which has infiltrated the border town and is holding several dozen children hostage in the town’s school building. In Jerusalem, special border police undercover units have thwarted an attempted truck bombing of the Malha commercial mall.

A Color Red alert has sounded over Tel-Aviv. Residents are advised to heed the instructions of the Home Front Command and head immediately to secure areas.

We continue with the regular broadcast.

Air Force Commander Maj. Gen. Amir Eshel said this morning that 47 IAF aircraft have not returned to their bases from last night’s operation against Iranian nuclear installations. Eshel added that 20 pilots have been confirmed killed in action over Iran, while 12 IAF crew from a helicopter squadron have been confirmed killed in Lebanon. Several dozen pilots and navigators have not yet been accounted for since last night’s initial raids over Iran, and seven are missing in action in the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon.

IAF forces are continuing to operate over Iranian airspace, Eshel said, adding that even though operations are ongoing, the IDF will work to locate its downed airmen and women. At a briefing with military reporters outside “the bunker” at IDF Headquarters in the Kiriya Complex in Tel-Aviv, Eshel said 8 Iranian installations connected with Iran’s nuclear enrichment program were targeted overnight, 5 were confirmed “destroyed,” whereas the extent of damage at three of the facilities has not yet been ascertained. Eshel added that Iranian air force and air defense targets were attacked in the first wave of Jericho missile attacks, after which IAF bombers hit the nuclear installations. Aerial combat was reported in several incidents. Most of the Israeli planes were brought down by advanced Russian-made surface-to-air missile systems provided to Iran by the Russian government. Contrary to conventional wisdom, Eshel said, the IAF had the means to continue a “rolling operation” over Iran and that last night’s sorties did not constitute the sum total of Israel’s aerial campaign over Iran. “It’s not a one-shot deal,” Eshel said, adding that the air force would carry out its mission until all Iranian nuclear facilities were “significantly eroded,” and the threat of a nuclear Iran was removed from the arena.

Eshel denied earlier reports on government-aligned Turkish news websites of Israeli warplanes firing on two Turkish Air Force patrols over northern Iraqi airspace. The IAF chief said, in the most stringent terms, that at no point in time had Israeli warplanes violated Turkish airspace, and that there was no engagement between aircraft of the two countries’ air forces. Eshel said he was trying to get in contact with his counterpart in Ankara but that this Israeli clarification has also been relayed via diplomatic channels. Despite this, the Turkish government has announced an emergency mobilization of the entire Turkish Armed Forces, with the army’s high command meeting in emergency session.

A Color Red alert has sounded over Haifa and the surrounding region. Residents are advised to heed the instructions of the Home Front Command and head immediately to secure areas.

We continue with the regular broadcast.

At the same briefing with Eshel, OC Ground Forces Command Maj. Gen. Sami Turgeman said IDF ground units have been advancing on several fronts and engaging formations of the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guards at or near nuclear installations across Iran. Turgeman revealed that a large infantry force was parachuted north of the Litani River area overnight and are engaging units of the Hezbollah at fortified positions. Other units are engaged in heavy fighting across the eastern and central sector, with reports of heavy fighting around Bint J’bel and Maroun a-Ras. Turgeman would not confirm reports in the Arab press and social media regarding the presence of Israeli Special Forces units at suspected Syrian chemical and biological weapons silos, saying only that it was stated Israeli policy to make sure that Assad’s stockpiles of WMD would not fall into terrorist hands or be used by the dying Alawite regime before it fell.

The IDF Home Front Command announces missile fall in Rishon LeZion, Givatayim, Petah Tikva, Netanya.

We continue with the regular broadcast.

Israel Navy vessels, acting on intelligence that pointed to a Russian warning to Iran about Israeli aerial movements last night, have encircled a Russian warship currently moored at the Syrian port of Tartus. The Russian commander of the Admiral Kuznetsov has sent a message to the Israeli vessels demanding they withdraw to international waters by 12pm today. The Russian ultimatum was delivered by radio to the commander of the INS Hanit. The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit released a statement saying only that the navy was acting in accordance with international laws of war wherein a ‘neutral’ entity in the theatre of war suspected of passing intelligence information to a combatant can be detained until a thorough investigation of the matter is complete. The Russian Interfax News Service reports that officials in Moscow have called an emergency meeting of the Russian High Command, with defense ministry sources saying that the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be dispatched to the area to make contact with the Kuznetsov. Moscow has also announced an emergency session of the Security Council to force a cessation of Israeli military operations over Iran, Syria and Lebanon, and that the Russian ambassador to Israel has been recalled.

The IDF Home Front Command announces missile fall in Jerusalem.

We continue with the regular broadcast.

In New York, we are getting reports of shooting at the 92Y cultural institution. A NYPD spokesman said this event is likely linked to the suicide bombing of two synagogues in Manhattan overnight. The bombings killed 30 people and wounded dozens. In a YouTube video, a group calling itself the “Martyrs of Mughniye” claimed responsibility for the act, and vowed that it was only the beginning of their “campaign of pain and Jihad against Jews, Israel Firsters and their supporters in the United States.”

In a letter to Israeli embassies around the world, the Prime Minister of Israel, Mr. Benjamin Netanyahu, has instructed the country’s ambassadors to urge the nations of the free world to follow Israel into battle with the regime in Tehran. According to the letter, Netanyahu told the ambassadors to convey the message that Israel has taken the fateful and historic first leap to thwart the genocidal ambitions of the Islamic Republic, and it was now time for the rest of the free world to follow Israel into battle. “Israeli fathers and mothers, brothers, sisters and sons, have bravely, and without joy, put on their uniforms and headed into battle against the forces of evil and destruction. As the only nation on earth whose existence was consistently threatened and promised, and whose bitterest enemies are on the cusp of attaining the weapons with which to destroy us, we looked around us for friends and allies, and found only promises and words. We were left with no choice but to act to remove the sword at our neck. Now, as our men and women in uniform are locked in battle against immense forces of evil, now is the time for the enlightened world to join us, shoulder to shoulder, so that we not stand alone in this fight. Many asked us to delay action, to give time for diplomacy to take its course. Many also said that a military option could not be effective, and that if we carried out such an option, it would only delay the Iranian nuclear weapons program for at most a year, and then give them a real excuse to build nuclear weapons and use them against us. I can tell you now that the Iranians do not need such an excuse, and that even the slightest chance that they might, perhaps, maybe, perchance, be irrational enough, crazy enough, and fanatic enough to use their doomsday weapons against us is just not a chance we can take,” the letter read. Netanyahu also called on Turkey and Russia to show restraint and understanding, and not to take any steps that would inflame the situation. The Prime Minister’s letter ended with a plea to Washington to break its silence and take a stand, together with Israel, against Iran. Netanyahu’s office also released a YouTube message from the Prime Minister making Israel’s case.

Today’s weather will be partly cloudy and mild.

This is the end of the news broadcast. Live updates continue…

Anonymous, the hacking ‘movement’, has created a YouTube video declaring war on Israel. The form and content of the declaration are sinister, in a Hollywood type of way. The cyber war, after all, has been going on for quite some time already. But what’s new is that this movement has now formally called on like-minded people all over the world to join in on the attack against Israel. By the way, the Anonymous video could be a fake, nobody really knows.

The video is sinister because the ‘declaration of war’ comes from an anonymous source that gathers “people who travel a short distance together – much like commuters who meet in a bus or tram: For a brief period of time we have the same route, share a common goal, purpose or dislike. And on this journey together, we may well change the world.” The declaration of war has not been made by a country or a dictator, or even a clearly identifiable terrorist group like Islamic Jihad. This is not an Iranian leader inspecting a military parade with mounted missiles rolling by, missiles which have “Death to Israel” scrawled on them. This is something else entirely, who knows who is really behind it, how many they are, how serious they are, and how much damage they can do. Israel gets hacked thousands of times a day, and this number has been increasing lately. The level of seriousness is also rising. I believe we’re just at the beginning of this new type of warfare, and I hope to God that we’re ready for it. By the way, if you want to ‘join’ Anonymous, here’s how. You know, just in case you want to get into the game and maybe, you know, ask the people nicely to please instead focus on really bad people like Bashar Assad, Vladimir Putin, Hugo Chavez, Khaminei, Robert Mugabe etc etc etc who make this world a really bad place.

Kriegerin, which translates loosely as “female fighter” is on wide release in Germany. It looks like a serious and contemporary film exploring the issue of women in the neo-Nazi scene, and it has parallels to a recent neo-Nazi case in Germany. From the screenshots [I haven't seen the film] I do get an impression however that the protagonists are humanized, and fighting to be recognized. It’s tough to reconcile myself to the fact that, in Germany, neo-Nazis might not seem, to the mainstream anyway, as nothing other than pure scum. Screenings are also planned at the Atlanta Jewish Film Festival as well as the Berlin International Film Festival.

Ascot Elite/ Alexander Janetzko

And then this, Iron Sky, a Finnish-German-Australian co-production about an invasion of space Nazis. According to IMDB: “The Nazis set up a secret base on the moon in 1945 where they hide out and plan to return to power in 2018.” It also premieres at the Berlin International Film Festival.

While Iron Sky is an entirely different genre and less serious than Kriegerin, it’s worrying in its celebration of ‘Nazi chic’. The Nazis here are portrayed as villains, but in such a comic way that young international audiences might think that the real Nazis of WW2 weren’t such terrible people really. I’m worried abot the long term impact it could have on millions of young people, who may think it a cool thing to say, as the promo does, that: “It’s gonna get Nazi” [instead of it's gonna get nasty]. What’s next, Nazi Westerns? Will the Nazis play the cowboys or the Indians? What about Nazi vampires?

When did being a Nazi become “so fucking awesome”?

There are a few things very wrong with this piece of news:

Firstly, Matan Vilnai, a former soldier and deputy defense minister, has absolutely no diplomatic experience to speak of. And he doesn’t speak Chinese. I mean, China is not important enough for us to send a career professional diplomat to, right? Vilnai will replace the current ambassador, Amos Nadai, who served as deputy head of the foreign ministry’s Asia department prior to his appointment as ambassador to China. Now THAT’S relevant experience.

But that’s not even the most salient problem.

The real problem with this news is that, on the eve of a possible regional war, with 200,000 rockets aimed at all parts of Israel, the minister responsible for preparing the home front to deal with the expected nightmare ups and leaves his post. To me, Vilnai can now be mentioned in the same breath as the Italian captain who abandoned the passengers of his sinking ship while he escaped safely to shore.

That’s unconscionable. It’s unforgivable on his part to even be interested in this posting at this specific time of emergency, and it’s unforgivable on the part of whoever decided to appoint him to China.

What’s also unconscionable, is the sad fact that Vilnai’s ministry was never given a budget and a staff, nor was it given any statutory powers. So why, I hear you asking, would it matter if Vilnai, the minister of nothing, is removed from his position and sent to China, if his ministry wasn’t doing anything anyway? What does it matter if Yossi Peled, another minister of nothing, is appointed to the position instead? It matters because Vilnai failed to rally people to his cause; failed to bang his fist on the table to get funding and power for what everyone is telling us will be the new front line in our next war. And if he couldn’t get the budgets and powers he needed to get the job done, Vilnai should have resigned in protest. That’s what real leaders do. They fight from inside the system, and if they absolutely fail to change the system from within, they resign and fight the system from the outside. Peled will not be able to get anything from the government that Vilnai didn’t get. Vilnai essentially accepted his ministerial seat because it was politically expedient to do so at the time. And now, when it is clear that the government has absolutely no intention to form one unified homefront command structure that coordinates all of the needs of Israel’s 7 million people under severe rocket attack, he finds an elegant way out. He leaves his position when over 1.5 million Israelis don’t have gas masks or bomb shelters. He leaves on the eve of a possible war.

Former GOC Homefront Command Maj. Gen. Yair Golan says that Israelis can expect to be under severe rocket attack for anywhere up to two months. That means two months of severe disruptions to daily life; it means that somebody needs to coordinate between the local authorities, the fire department, the police, the army, the hospitals, the factories, public transportation, the airports, the social services, etc etc etc

Take a look at what his office is responsible for, and tell me if you think it’s not serious enough.

This should be one of the most important, prestigious, and sought-after jobs in the country right now. It should be handled by a capable minister at the helm of a serious ministry. It should be handled by a career soldier, with decades of military and logistical experience. Someone like Vilnai would actually be perfect for this job. But instead of giving Vilnai the tools he needs to do his job [if he even demanded them], the government sends him to China, far, far away from here, to a posting that he is far, far too underqualified for. I’m not interested in Vilnai’s career, I want to know who replaces Vilnai at the MOD and what budget and powers he is given. I’m interested in the state of bomb shelters and bread bakeries.

And guess what, no replacement for Vilnai at the Homefront Defense Ministry has yet been announced. Why the government would trumpet Vilnai’s appointment to China instead of trumpeting a successful replacement for the Homefront Defense Ministry is beyond me. It’s not like Israeli citizens are worried or anything…

Stupid, short-sighted, frustrating, scary.

According to Krauthammer, Bashar Assad’s fall would “deprive Iran of an intra-Arab staging area and sever its corridor to the Mediterranean. Syria would return to the Sunni fold. Hezbollah, Tehran’s agent in Lebanon, could be next, withering on the vine without Syrian support and Iranian materiel. And Hamas would revert to Egyptian patronage.”

It all sounds so fine and dandy. Too good to be true even. Wish it were so. But so often in the Middle East the best case scenarios turn out to be just that, scenarios, while reality stabs you in the back and takes a bite out of your ass. When Israel left Lebanon in 2000 we were supposed to get a good and quiet border. We left Gaza hoping it would become Singapore, instead it became Waziristan. America invaded Iraq to rid Saddam of WMDs he didn’t have and instead created hell-on-earth, a War of Mass Distraction, while, just over the border, the Iranians were cooking up real WMDs.

How can you be so sure, Charles, that post-Assad Syria “returns to the Sunni fold”? The truth is that we a) don’t know when and how Assad falls, b)what he’s capable of doing before he finally goes down, and b) what kind of Syria we’ll get after Assad goes (a strife-torn, hell-on-earth Iraq redux).

And what exactly is the “Sunni fold” nowadays? A Muslim-Brotherhood dominated region (from Morocco, Libya, Egypt, and Tunisia) – with secular groups pushed out of the centers of power. What do we know about the alliances, policies and aims of the new leaders of the Sunni fold? How can we be sure that they really won’t find ways to work and coexist with Iran? It’s not a stretch. If it’s in their interests, and in Iran’s interests, they’ll find ways to cooperate. And how do we know the new regimes in the Middle East will be pro-peace, pro-democracy and pro-West? In fact, all the indicators so far point in the opposite direction. Krauthammer’s pieces fit too neatly to be plausible in this uncertain region.

Hamas may “revert to Egyptian patronage” but it is an entirely different Egypt that they might revert to. The new Egypt, ruled by the army and Muslim Brotherhood gives Hamas a much more solid base of support and operations than they ever had in Syria. A base which they can use to further consolidate their grip on Gaza. A new Egypt, which has totally lost all control over the Sinai – which is fast becoming the world’s next terror mega-hub. Hamas, by thawing its relations with Jordan, will work to deepen its infrastructure in the West Bank.

So yes, we want Bashar Asssad to fall, hard, fast and painfully. We want Iran to be weakened and isolated. But let’s not have any illusions about what happens next. Bashar still has China and Russia, and so do the Iranians, incidentally.