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Tag Archives: Iran
Israeli Homeland Defense Minister abandons post just as things get interesting
So, Homefront Defense Minister Matan Vilnai has accepted an appointment to be Israel’s new ambassador to Beijing.
There are a few things very wrong with this piece of news:
Firstly, Matan Vilnai, a former soldier and deputy defense minister, has absolutely no diplomatic experience to speak of. And he doesn’t speak Chinese. I mean, China is not important enough for us to send a career professional diplomat to, right? Vilnai will replace the current ambassador, Amos Nadai, who served as deputy head of the foreign ministry’s Asia department prior to his appointment as ambassador to China. Now THAT’S relevant experience. Continue reading
Iran on my mind
I can’t sleep.
How awful. I’ve had such a long day, and now I’m lying in bed, and all I can think of is Iran. Will we or won’t we? Should we or shouldn’t we? If we do, will the Americans join in? Or will we be in this on our own?
It seems like today, more than most days, was ‘let’s talk about Iran’ day. Ashkenazi talked about it, Yadlin talked about it, Dempsey talked about it. Time Magazine wrote about it. The New York Times had a big story about it. The Institute for Science and International Security released a report about it today. Continue reading
Israel to Iran: Do you get the picture?
When it comes to sending signals, a picture is worth a thousand words. And lately, Israel has been sending a lot pictures to get its message across.
Just over the past week, the Israeli defense establishment has released the following pictures of its set pieces:
The Ministry of Defense has released pictures of an Arrow 3 anti-missile defense system test. [Message to Iran: We can hit your long-range missiles, your threats of massive rocket attack have been noted and we're prepared].
Israel’s [real] statement against European condemnation
Israel on Wednesday accused four European countries of meddling in her affairs and warned that they risked making themselves “irrelevant.”
The communiqué came a day after Britain, France, Germany and Portugal called on Israelis and Palestinians to present proposals on territory and security to the Quartet. The Europeans called on Israel to reverse its settlement building plans, saying that they were illegal, sent a “devastating message” and threatened the prospects for a two-state solution.
In an exclusive for my blog, I’ve gotten my hands on a “leaked copy” of the original draft of the Foreign Ministry statement. The statement that was released to the media did not contain the [text in parentheses] Continue reading
‘Superhero’ spymaster now a thorn in government’s side
Former Mossad chief, now chief thorn in government's side
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking cabinet support for a military strike on Iran, the Haaretz newspaper reported on Wednesday, after days of speculation about plans for an attack. The report, citing a senior Israeli official, said Netanyahu was working with Defense Minister Ehud Barak to win support from skeptical members of the cabinet who oppose attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.
The above quote is making its way around the world’s media. It bothers me that the whole world now knows what’s going on deep inside the top Israeli leadership concerning the issue of an attack on Iran, no less. But there you have it. A few days before the Haaretz report, Yediot Aharonot reported that Barak and Netanyahu had already decided to attack Iran, without consulting the other ministers.The Israeli government is furious that Haaretz even reported on the inner deliberations of the Israeli ministers. Now everybody is talking about this issue: should Israel attack Iran before the winter clouds make it difficult for our planes to find their targets? Are Barak and Netanyahu sufficiently experienced to carry out this fateful mission? Is the Israeli home front ready and capable to withstand an Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation? Should the Israeli public be readied to live with the Iranian bomb, or is there no way on earth the Jewish people should ever let radical Islamists arm themselves with nuclear weapons? Should our planes swoop in from the east or the north? What music should the pilots listen to the night before, something rhythmic or something soothing? Metallica or Mozart? Continue reading
What Peres really told the Iranian people
Presidents Barack Obama and Shimon Peres both addressed the Iranian people this week in broadcast messages in honor of the Iranian new year, Nowruz. Obama sent a video message that was widely received and spoke in a respectful, conciliatory tone of a “new beginning”. Peres’ message was broadcast to a narrow audience on Israel Radio’s Farsi Service and was less optimistic – calling on the Iranian people to choose a better leadership. The Israeli President’s message was different to Obama’s, and reflected the gloomy mood in the Jewish state. The differences in the messages reflects the wide gap between an American administration willing to give diplomacy with Iran a serious push, and an Israeli leader’s apprehension of a coming disaster. Continue reading
Ceasefire in Gaza; until the next round
Day 1 of the unilateral ceasefire Israel embarked on in Gaza. We’ve already had Hamas firing rockets at the south, but that’s because this is an Israeli ceasefire, not something Hamas has signed onto. There is wide consensus that eventually, Israel and Hamas will clash again. The government’s aim in embarking on Operation Cast Lead was to bring quiet to the south for an extended period of time, and to deal with the smuggling of weapons into the Gaza Strip, re. weaken Hamas in the long term by making sure they cannot rearm so heavily. Continue reading
DC through Jerusalem, Tehran via Damascus
Syria’s Bashar Assad, derided as the son even his own father didn’t want to succeed him, is turning out to share many of Hafez’s wily and cautious traits. Despite a series of recent blows to his homeland security (the killings of Hizbullah terror chief Imad Mughniyeh and Syrian military adviser Muhammad Suleiman, the IAF’s destruction of his nascent nuclear plant, and an American Special Forces raid on his border with Iraq), Assad junior is managing to keep a steady hand on the reins of power.
Early intelligence assessments that he would prove a weak and perhaps even quickly disposable successor have been disproved.
Assad Jr. is plainly looking to the long-term. He has accounts to settle with several players in the region, but for the moment he’s playing it cool. And for this, and his indirect talks with Israel, the West, and notably France, have rewarded him with greater acceptance. Continue reading
Livni tells Obama: “No you can’t”
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who is vying for the prime minister’s job as the head of the Kadima party, on Thursday sent a loud and clear “No you can’t” to US President-elect Barack Obama on the latter’s stated willingness to conduct negotiations with Iran without preconditions.
“We live in a neighborhood in which sometimes dialogue – in a situation where you have brought sanctions, and you then shift to dialogue – is liable to be interpreted as weakness,” Livni told Israel Radio. Asked if she supported any U.S. dialogue with Iran, Livni replied: “The answer is no.” Livni also said “the bottom line” was that the U.S., under Obama, “is also not willing to accept a nuclear Iran.”
Obama has said he would toughen sanctions on Iran but has also held out the possibility of direct talks to resolve rows, which include a dispute over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
And like Bush, has not ruled out military action although he has criticized the outgoing administration for not pushing for more diplomacy and engagement with Iran.
Remember the submarines, don’t mention the war
BERLIN – Sixty years after World War II and the Holocaust, and according to intelligence sources approximately 18 months until Iran can create a nuclear bomb, the diplomatic relationship between Israel and Germany is moving into high gear as Jerusalem presses Berlin to lead the EU in isolating Teheran. Jerusalem and Berlin agree that Iran is the biggest destabilizing force in the Middle East, but disagree on how to deal with that threat. Israel, working behind the scenes to isolate Iran diplomatically and financially, is frustrated at the continued trade between German industrialists and Iran.
Israel wants Germany to sever all trade and diplomatic ties with Iran [Israel is a much bigger trade partner to Germany than Iran is], and would like Berlin to implement sanctions out of the UN Security Council framework as that is being sabotaged by Russia and China. Continue reading
‘Israel can’t stop Iran alone’
EU diplomatic sources who specialize in the Middle East believe that Israel cannot stop the Iranian nuclear program on its own using military means.
Teheran has effective countermeasures against air strikes, and the sources do not see Israel committing ground forces to a battle in Iran, pointing to the American experience in Iraq on that score.
In the wake of the Second Lebanon War, the Iranians and their proxies believe that Israel is not invincible. Furthermore, EU diplomatic officials predict the development of a regional conflagration of unknown proportions as a result of any Israeli strike on the Islamic Republic. While many nations in the region would quietly support Israeli action, in public they would have to align against the Jewish state, an EU source said, adding that “the end of this road is not known.” Continue reading
Some thoughts on Syria
I feel sorry for Bashar Assad.
The closer Israel and Syria get to direct peace talks, the more aggressive those opposed to that deal seem to become, and Assad is taking some serious hits to his administration. What has always held true, that there is a strong government in Syria that can sign, implement and maintain a peace accord with Israel, is starting to come undone. The assassinations of Imad Mughniyeh and Mohammed Suleiman have seriously embarrassed the Assad regime. The message that these two events sends, both to the internal Syrian audience, and to the wider Arab public, is that Assad is not in complete control of his country, that he is on shaky ground. If this is truly the case, and somebody is working to destabilize the Assad regime, then the prospects that the latest round of Syrian-Israel peace talks could lead to a breakthrough, and that peace could be maintained, are diminished. Which, of course, could be the real aim of whoever is behind the attempts to rattle the Syrian government. Peace between Israel and Syria would open the door for other Arab states to do the same. Syria’s benefit would be greater integration with the West, moving away from the axis of evil, and isolating Iran [who would be left alone on that axis with North Korea].
Assad needs to find out who assassinated these men on his soil, and quick. He needs to show his country that everything is under control, that his regime is stable. Problem is, the hidden hand behind the assassinations could belong to his biggest ally and only real friend right now, Iran. If this is the case, Tehran is sending a very strong message to Damascus: the further you progress with Israel, the closer you come to losing your head. Iran would love it if Suleiman’s assassins turned out to be Israeli, and already their state media is spinning that story. Iran has an enormous interest in framing Israel for the assassination: It’s scared to death of Syrian-Israeli-Arab world peace.
Or, the hand behind Assad’s woes may belong to Israel’s Mossad, in which case the indirect talks mediated by Turkey will most likely be called off. In any case, Assad’s security apparatus has been infiltrated to a very high degree. You don’t just blow up the car of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus and gun down Mohammed Suleiman [Assad's military advisor] in Tartus without intimate knowledge of these men’s whereabouts. Israel had a long score to settle with Mughniyeh, and killing Suleiman could somewhat disrupt Syria’s weapons transfers to Hizbullah, of which he was in charge. In terms of Israel: Mughniyeh maybe, Suleiman – highly unlikely.
In addition to this, somewhere down the line, Assad’s regime is likely to face its stiffest challenge: the probe into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. If the UN tribunal investigating that incident accuses elements of Assad’s regime, and perhaps those closest to Assad himself, the Syrian leader may start feeling like he has very few friends left.
And peace with Israel, whose parliamentarians are on the verge of making it almost impossible to trade the Golan Heights for peace, becomes more remote.
Olympic cheer-O-meter: Iran gets booed
Just watching the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics, with all the countries’ athletes marching into the stadium in the Parade of Athletes.
As the Iranian delegation walked in, a palpable, clearly audible boo was heard from the assembled audience. Why did I hear this so clearly? Not just because I’m acutely attuned to anything about somebody who wants to wipe me off the map, but actually because just before Iran, a thunderous cheer went up as the small Iraqi delegation marched into the stadium. There are at least two other people in the room with me who heard the same, and I don’t think I’m making this up. We’re watching the opening ceremony on British EuroSport Live channel, and even the commentator, after hearing the crowd’s reaction to the Iranians, said, “Quite a controversial welcome for the Iranians.”
The contrast between the cheer for the Iraqis and the boos for the Iranians was very distinct, and very interesting. Has Iran become a pariah state?
Now, a lot of other people are talking about Iran getting booed.
Truth is I feel bad for the Iranian athletes. I can’t imagine how great it must be to march into an Olympic stadium representing your country, only to have it tinged by something like this. What’s going on in the mosques of power in Tehran is not the athletes’ fault.
However, when something like this happens, you do have to wonder.
Clearly Iraq has a lot of sympathy in the world. And I wonder if Iran’s image in China [and not just in Israel and America] is negative. I’m sure there a lot of Chinese at the Olympic stadium now, but also tens of thousands of audience members from other countries. Who booed the Iranian delegation? I don’t know what the average Chinese person thinks about Iran’s policies, but I’m guessing that the average Chinese person doesn’t have much of an opinion on Tehran’s push for nuclear development, or their support for Islamic extremist groups. Perhaps there was a majority of foreigners at the stadium. In any case, it sounded pretty much like a wall-to-wall boo at the Bird’s Nest Stadium.
Israel got a decent cheer as well as Palestine [4 athletes].
So far, Brazil and Spain seemed to get the largest cheers, with Canada coming close.
The Russian delegation got quite a huge roar, despite the fact that Russia and Georgia are, as of today, officially at war.
I thought that countries were not supposed to go to war with each other during the duration of the Olympic games.
America just got a huge cheer.
Barak unplugged
There is nothing I can report to you from our one-and-a-half hour meeting with Defense Minister Ehud Barak at our offices today, as it was agreed beforehand that the briefing would be entirely off record.
What I can do however, is to give you my impressions of Barak at this point in time, and the thing that stands out most about him right now is that he is angry and feels that he needs to act: angry at the way the government is handling things in general; angry at Kadima, angry at what he believes are lost opportunities and wasted resources.
When talking about strategic and defense issues – Barak’s words were measured and his tone relaxed, and I got that reassured feeling that on these matters, Ehud Barak is the best possible person for the job. One year into the job as Defense Minister, Barak is confident that the security establishment is on the right track to meet the threats of the future, and he comes across as eminently believable. Continue reading
Mr. Security and Mr. Politics
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz has been grilled by the local press over the past few days for saying in an interview that should Iran continue developing its nuclear program, Israel will attack it. Some commentators even went as far as accusing him of putting his political primary race, which hasn’t even been announced yet, above Israel’s strategic interests.
Shaul Mofaz, a former IDF Chief of General Staff and Defense Minister, has for years been in charge of Israel’s strategic dialogue with the United States. This posting was given to him not just because he has the security credentials necessary to understand the issues at hand, but also to sweeten the bitter pill he was given when Prime Minister Ehud Olmert replaced him with Labor Party’s then chairman Amir Peretz at the healm of the Defense Ministry. That move was seen as purely political, and Olmert paid the price of having an inexperienced defense minister at his side when he chose to embark on a war with Hizbullah in 2006. Since then Mofaz has been doing his job quietly and studiously, with very little fanfare or media leaks. He has been at the heart of the most sensitive security issues the Jewish state faces for years, building a reputation as a solid Mr. Security, a dependable ex-general we can count on in times of danger.
So why did he throw it all away?
Duet in Damascus
“Gathering intelligence in Shiite neighborhoods is complex, of course, the nature of the neighborhood almost didn’t allow them to walk around on foot and look at things, neither were they able to drive around in a rented car. One of the buildings in the street matched the description given to them in an intelligence briefing by a local agent. After several turns in the area at different hours of the day, a car that was also seen at his office was noticed parked outside the building on the residential street. The next day, when they waited for him to leave the neighborhood in the early morning hours, they identified the man himself and his car. Now was the time to move. He finished assembling the bomb quickly and lifted it carefully – nobody enjoys walking around with a kilo of explosives in his hands. He quickly moved towards the car and crawled underneath it, took out the tools from his pocket, and placed the bomb under the chassis.” – Duet in Beirut, by Mishka Ben David, 2002.
No need to wait for the book on Imad Mughniyeh’s demise in Damascus. It may already have been written.
Duet in Beirut by former Mossad operative Mishka Ben-David is a work of fiction, but owes its wealth of detail to the author’s intelligence experience. Published in Hebrew six years ago, it describes a Mossad hit team traveling to Beirut, stalking the head of Hizbullah’s foreign terror department and assassinating him in a car bombing. Perhaps unfortunately for Mughniyeh, it was not translated into Arabic; had he read it, he might have taken greater precautions. Continue reading
Now I’m worried
You know, I’ve been following the story of Iran’s march towards nuclear capabilities for years, but tonight, more than in the past, I feel in my bones what I think I’ve known all along: that this story is not going to have a happy ending, and that Israel and Iran may go to war over this issue.
Tonight I heard Deputy Defense Minister Gen. [res] Matan Vilnai say at the Herzliya Conference that a nuclear Iran is unacceptable to him as a citizen of Israel, and as deputy defense minister. He said that Iran is led by a regime motivated by extremist, radical and apocolyptic ideologies, and that the regime has no problem turning their entire population into martyrs. Vilnai: “Iran, and this is no secret, is a country run by fanatics.” Continue reading
Syria’s relationship status: It’s Complicated
Reuters reports Sunday that Syria had blocked access to Facebook
Now, Damascus has said it is sending its deputy Foreign Minister to the Annapolis conference, signaling a possible shift in its close relationship with Iran, who was not invited to the peace parley.
Iran and Syria have grown very close over the past few years, despite the different ethnic constituents [Iran is Shi'ite] and Syria is ruled by the minority Alawites. What brought them together were their perceived common enemies: America and Israel. It will be interesting to watch Tehran’s reaction to this turn of events.
So, based on today’s developments, this is what Syria’s official Facebook profile would look like if it had one [Thanks to Ricky Ben-David for the illustration]:
The Syrian Arab Republic is…
Going to Annapolis
Networks: Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas, PFLP, North Korea, Axis of Evil
Interested in: The Golan Heights; The Lebanese Presidential election; Whatever I can get
Relationship status: Its complicated: Is in a relationship with Iran, but is looking to see other people because Iran is on a collision course with most of the world
Looking for: A way out of the Axis of Evil
Notification: Syria has joined the group: Peace Conference in Annapolis
Former Mossad chief: Only force will stop Iran
From the beginning of Teheran’s march towards a nuclear capability, Israel has attempted to convince the world of the danger posed by a nuclear Iran. According to a former Mossad director, should Israel remain alone in its efforts to thwart Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it has only one viable option before Iran achieves its goal: to strike its most important nuclear facilities and set its program back by several years – this, instead of attempting to wipe out its program entirely, which may be beyond Israel’s ability. And once the Iranians recover and begin advancing – which they will – strike them again and again, until they decide to pursue a different path.
Speaking to The Jerusalem Post ahead of next week’s Seventh Annual International Institute of Counter-Terrorism (ICT) Conference at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya, former Mossad chief and current ICT chairman Shabtai Shavit says only military force can stop an Iran bent on achieving nuclear capability.
