Yair Lapid, the man who would be king, is starting to lose altitude. Just under two months since he announced that he was quitting journalism and entering politics, Lapid is starting to get worn down. And now the polls are starting to show what could be, for Lapid, a long, slow, and painful descent until the country actually heads into general elections, sometime toward the end of the year or the beginning of next year. Continue reading
Tag Archives: Kadima
Some thoughts on the situation 18/01/2011
1. A senior ranking IDF officer has told reporters the following two things:
a). The army is very loathe to demolish the illegal settlement outpost of Migron by the court-appointed deadline of March because it “will cause a serious backlash from the right wing and possibly change the security balance in the West Bank.”
In other words: we can carry out the orders of the High Court but it’s going to cause a major upheaval and so may not even be worth the trouble. Continue reading
Two national unity governments for two peoples
Much of the international community’s hope for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians currently rests on the formation of two national unity governments, one in Israel and one in the Palestinian territories.
Both the Israelis [represented by the Likud and Kadima parties] and the Palestinians [represented by Fatah and Hamas] are currently absorbed in near-identical processes to unite their two largest ideological blocs. On the Palestinian side, one of the blocs is represented by a terrorist organization that refuses to recognize Israel, disavow violence, or respect previous signed agreements. Its charter calls for the destruction of Israel, and the most it is willing to countenance is a long term truce, not a two-state solution. Hamas’ inclusion in a Palestinian unity government the world can engage with is by no means a foregone conclusion, nor is Israel’s engagement with such a Palestinian national unity government should it arise. Continue reading
Some thoughts on the situation
One week after the elections and what we have right now is a political stalemate without a clear outcome.
Right now we don’t have a government – neither Bibi nor Livni have enough MKs to form a government, since Avigdor Lieberman has not recommended either and who knows what he’ll do come Wednesday at Beit Hanassi. Both Bibi and Livni are trying to entice Lieberman into their camps with promises of ministries and freedom to vote on pertinent issues such as conversions and civil unions. Both Bibi and Livni have promised to topple Hamas once they’re in power – like Lieberman wants. Lieberman would prefer a Likud-led government, but he has problems with the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which will fight him on state-religion issues and changing the electoral system. Shas’ leader has also called Liberman the Devil. Lieberman didn’t like that at all. The Likud is trying to square that circle now: how to give Lieberman what he wants on civil-religious issues while not radically changing the nature of the country’s religious establishment. Everyone in the big parties wants a Likud-Kadima-Israel Beitenu coalition government of 70 MKs . The fight now is over who heads that government, Bibi or Livni. Even after the elections it’s still Bibi or Livni. Continue reading
Kadima wants Lieberman
LIVEBLOGGING FROM THE KADIMA ELECTION GATHERING
A Kadima official told The Jerusalem Post late Tuesday night that Israel Beitenu was more of a natural partner than the Likud, and that Avigdor Lieberman’s party was “not really in the right wing bloc.”
“They are not on the right on the issue of a two-state solution. They support that solution but they want a land swap in it. They are not on the right on state-religion issues and they are not on the right on the issue of changing the system of government. Lieberman is pragmatic and he can definitely be in the coalition,” the top Kadima official said. The official added that Kadima would like to form as broad a coalition as possible, but would settle for a Kadima-Labor-Israel Beitenu-UTJ coalition, which would give it about 63 Knesset seats. Continue reading
Livni wins, but Kadima may yet lose election
The outer wall at Kadima HQ on Gissin Street in Petah Tikva’s industrial neighborhood is still adorned with a very large poster of the party’s founder Ariel Sharon, but that could change soon. Inside the bustling building on Tuesday, a large Sharon poster hung across the main office room where dozens of party activists were working the phones on Election Day, checking in with their counterparts in the field at polling booths countrywide. Across the wall is an election poster showing Sharon on the one side, and Kadima leader Tzipi Livni on the other. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been wiped out of Kadima’s literature and PR material. The party that started with Sharon’s ‘big bang’ and struggled ever since through a barrage of sex scandals, corruption investigations, failed and unfinished wars, has come out the other side stronger that it was when Olmert took charge of the party in 2006. Continue reading
The Undecided People’s Party
Just a few hours to go before the polls open for Israel’s general election, our fifth in a decade. There are many people who won’t vote, a very small number who will spoil their vote, and a vast amount of people who will only decide who to vote for as they enter the polling booth, and even then not do so with a clear conscience. Choosing the lesser evil is not as thrilling as voting for someone or something you truly believe in. These people, about 30 percent of the electorate, are good, honest folk, who do want to throw away their right to vote just because, at this late stage, they still don’t know who to vote for. I hope they go out to vote and don’t stay home just because they can’t make up their minds. It’s like you know you should buy something with the gift voucher you’ve been given, and you don’t want it to go to waste – it’s only valid on one day every 2 and a half years [technically 4 but hey whose counting?] – but you’re not sure what to get with it. Continue reading
Happy New War
New year, new war.
Some observations:
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is taking the most aggressive approach to Hamas this time round, rejecting ceasefire proposals and saying that when she wins the general elections and becomes Prime Minister, she’ll destroy Hamas. Livni is trying to take moderate voters away from the Likud who may be worried that Netanyahu’s party is too right wing. Livni’s talking tough because a) she is tough [her family hail from pre-state Jewish underground groups] and b) Kadima is lagging in the polls behind Likud, so taking a hard line stance on Hamas should endear her to many on the right. This election will be decided by about 8-10 percent floating voters, most of them to be had between Kadima and Likud. Continue reading
Olmert asks Netanyahu to help explain Israel’s Gaza war
UPDATE: Netanyahu joins Israel’s PR war effort, appearing on FOX News.
Just heard that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert met today with opposition leader Likud MK Binyamin Netanyahu and updated him on the security situation, as is required by law. The Prime Minister’s Office also reports that Olmert asked Netanyahu to step up and help in Israel’s public diplomacy efforts during this round of fighting with Hamas in Gaza.
Netanyahu, a fluent English-speaker with a Harvard degree, is considered the top public speaker in Israel, especially on foreign networks. While Social Affairs Minister Isaac Herzog and President Shimon Peres are no slouches, nobody comes close to Bibi’s clarity and force of argument, regardless of whether one agrees with him or not. Continue reading
Likud taunts Livni with Nasrallah-boy
Seems everyone is jumping on the ‘I got a crush on Obama’ video.
After a relatively unknown member of Knesset, Sagiv Asulin of the Likud got a pretty fan to do a spoof of the original Obama video. This one’s actually pretty good. Continue reading
Israeli elections set for February 10
Knesset speaker Dalia Itzik set the elections for February 10, 2009. That’s about 100 days from now.
Here are a few observations from some of the polls released today.
In a Haaretz Dialogue poll, those asked who is most able to deal with Israel’s security problems, 33 percent of respondents answered Netanyahu, 26 percent said Defense Minister Ehud Barak, head of the Labor Party, and 14 percent said Livni. And this is why Kadima leader Tzipi Livni needs former chief of staff and minister of defense Shaul Mofaz so badly, to bolster her and Kadima’s security credentials. Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter, while seen as a Mr. Security for having served in the secretive Shabak for many years, has taken a beating of late for his handling of the Uri Bar-Lev affair and other police bungles. There is a general sense in the country that Livni, as prime minister, would be tested by the likes of Hizbullah, Hamas and maybe even the Syrians. With Mofaz [as possible Foreign Minister] and Ehud Barak [as Defense Minister] at her side, Livni would look a hell of a lot less vulnerable. Livni also desperately needs Mofaz to be happy with his lot in life and not deepen his animosity for her after her narrow win over him in the Kadima leadership race; she does not need a rebel camp in Kadima. Continue reading
IDF, Mossad, Shabak eye Kadima leadership
Just realized something interesting: all four candidates for the Kadima leadership have impressive security backgrounds:
Shaul Mofaz is a former IDF Chief of General Staff, Minister of Defense, and he also heads the Israel-US strategic dialogue. He is on the security cabinet.
Avi Dichter is a former paratrooper, General Security Service [Shabak] agent, and head of the internal secret service organization for several years. He is currently Minister of Internal Security, which oversees the Police. He is on the security cabinet.
Tzipi Livni is a former Mossad operative. Not much is known about her service in Israel’s foreign intelligence service, but a report a few months ago in a British paper claimed she took part in a terrorist hunting mission in Europe. She is also on the security cabinet.
Interior Minister Meir Sheetrit is currently the head of the Knesset’s oversight sub-committee on the secret services, where Sheetrit is privy to much of the defense secrets and issues of the country. He knows exactly what the Shabak and Mossad are up to, and as such, he is also on the security cabinet.
That’s a pretty impressive list of candidates for the leadership of Kadima and Israel. Now the only question is, do they have a party?
Mrs. Clean is from Mars, Mr. Security is from Venus
While the real battle between Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz to replace Ehud Olmert as Kadima chairperson and prime minister is taking place amongst the 30,000 Kadima members and not the wider public, the two frontrunners have retained the services of skilled campaign consultants to convince both the party membership and the general public that their candidate is worthy of Israel’s top job.
Livni’s core team consists of kingmakers Reuven Adler and Eyal Arad, the duo that established Kadima for Ariel Sharon and got him elected as Prime Minister. On Mofaz’s side is world-renowned political strategist Arthur Finkelstein. While Livni is ahead in the latest polls, Mofaz is closing the gap, and the momentum seems to be with him, hence Livni’s announcement Monday that she has formally hired Adler and Co. Within the general population, Livni is more popular, but in the crucial Kadima membership, Mofaz is stronger. Livni’s team has until September 17 to stem Mofaz’s surge, while the latter will attempt to keep his momentum going.
Mofaz’s team will position their candidate as Mr. Security, a former IDF Chief of Staff, Minister of Defense, and currently heading the strategic dialogue with the US, whose entire life was spent fighting Israel’s enemies, and as such, the secure candidate to steer the Jewish state through what is undoubtedly very stormy security seas to come.
Livni’s team will position her as a strong Mrs. Clean, as Sharon’s successor, and as someone who can restore the country’s faith in the political system in general, and in Kadima in particular. Kadima was founded on the promise of being different to the corrupt Likud, especially its notorious Central Committee. That image has been largely destroyed by Olmert, Hirshzon, Hanegbi and others. That Livni’s hands are politically clean, after all the corruption that has flooded this country of late, is the foreign minister’s strongest selling point.
Barak unplugged
There is nothing I can report to you from our one-and-a-half hour meeting with Defense Minister Ehud Barak at our offices today, as it was agreed beforehand that the briefing would be entirely off record.
What I can do however, is to give you my impressions of Barak at this point in time, and the thing that stands out most about him right now is that he is angry and feels that he needs to act: angry at the way the government is handling things in general; angry at Kadima, angry at what he believes are lost opportunities and wasted resources.
When talking about strategic and defense issues – Barak’s words were measured and his tone relaxed, and I got that reassured feeling that on these matters, Ehud Barak is the best possible person for the job. One year into the job as Defense Minister, Barak is confident that the security establishment is on the right track to meet the threats of the future, and he comes across as eminently believable. Continue reading
Mr. Security and Mr. Politics
Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz has been grilled by the local press over the past few days for saying in an interview that should Iran continue developing its nuclear program, Israel will attack it. Some commentators even went as far as accusing him of putting his political primary race, which hasn’t even been announced yet, above Israel’s strategic interests.
Shaul Mofaz, a former IDF Chief of General Staff and Defense Minister, has for years been in charge of Israel’s strategic dialogue with the United States. This posting was given to him not just because he has the security credentials necessary to understand the issues at hand, but also to sweeten the bitter pill he was given when Prime Minister Ehud Olmert replaced him with Labor Party’s then chairman Amir Peretz at the healm of the Defense Ministry. That move was seen as purely political, and Olmert paid the price of having an inexperienced defense minister at his side when he chose to embark on a war with Hizbullah in 2006. Since then Mofaz has been doing his job quietly and studiously, with very little fanfare or media leaks. He has been at the heart of the most sensitive security issues the Jewish state faces for years, building a reputation as a solid Mr. Security, a dependable ex-general we can count on in times of danger.
So why did he throw it all away?
The consigliore in the Knesset
Legend has it that last year, when the first Winograd Report into the Second Lebanon War was about to be dropped like a cluster bomb onto the Israeli political and military scene, political king-maker and spin-master supreme Reuven Adler switched off his cellular phone, packed his bags and hopped onto a plane to New York.
Adler, head of a vast media and advertising empire and long-time strategic consultant to the top political echelon, was in a pickle: He was serving as an adviser to just too many cabinet members (almost half the ministers, from all coalition parties). Many of them needed guidance on how to outmaneuver, depose, discredit and beat down their fellow cabinet members other Adler clients. Continue reading
