Will the Israeli silent majority vote in larger numbers in the next general elections than they have in previous elections?
There are signs that it may. Over the past year, it is the silent majority, and specifically, those who consider themselves centrists in their political and economic outlook, which has been most heavily involved in three public campaigns that seem to have shaken it awake from its political slumber. Continue reading
Legislation to bend the legal establishment to the will of politicians; legislation against left-wing NGO funding; laws mandating loyalty oaths, fines against boycotts, increasing the minimum fine against libel, enforcing noise pollution on mosque muezzins, and much, much more.
What’s behind this ‘Assault on Democracy,’ this rush of legislation from the ruling coalition and its satellite parties? Why are young Likud legislators working overtime on changing the nature of the state? On the one hand we want our lawmakers to make laws, but on the other hand, many are alarmed at the rate of the laws being proposed, as well as their content. Continue reading
The government has set up its committee of experts to address the demands of the social justice protestors. No mandate or parameters have been publicized yet. Probably because there are none. Continue reading
The two coin-operated black-leather massage couches, the kind that you sit in and relax while the little motorized balls inside the leather work their way up your leg muscles and into your back and back down again, should have been working overtime. But none of the 1200 Labor Party convention delegates packed into the smoke-filled cafeteria at the Tel Aviv Convention Center on Tuesday had any time for a 5-minute massage.
The last time the Labor delegates convened two months before the general elections in November was over a simple vote on internal party rules and procedures. This time they were deciding Labor’s future. Sitting around cafeteria tables, the conversations were about how Labor’s anti-coalition MKs would behave after they lost Tuesday’s vote, whether they would split the party, whether the party itself had any future, and, which jobs would be given to which ministers and MKs. Continue reading
This is how Labor dies. Not with a whimper. Not with a bang. More like assisted suicide.
Mark this day, Tuesday 24 March 2009. It is on this day that Israel’s founding party ‘finishes its historical role’. Regardless of which way the vote in the convention goes today, Labor is finished. If Barak wins, Labor will serve as the fig leaf for Netanyahu’s ‘orange and black’ administration, gradually withering away under international diplomatic isolation and economic stress. If Barak loses, he could jump ship and join Bibi, alone or with a few others, while leaving the rest of Labor [what will they call themselves, the Real Labor, True Labor, Provisional Labor, Continuity Labor?] to rot under the long shadow cast by the much bigger Kadima. Seven constantly-bickering opposition MKs won’t take Labor over the next electoral threshold. Continue reading
Much of the international community’s hope for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians currently rests on the formation of two national unity governments, one in Israel and one in the Palestinian territories.
Both the Israelis [represented by the Likud and Kadima parties] and the Palestinians [represented by Fatah and Hamas] are currently absorbed in near-identical processes to unite their two largest ideological blocs. On the Palestinian side, one of the blocs is represented by a terrorist organization that refuses to recognize Israel, disavow violence, or respect previous signed agreements. Its charter calls for the destruction of Israel, and the most it is willing to countenance is a long term truce, not a two-state solution. Hamas’ inclusion in a Palestinian unity government the world can engage with is by no means a foregone conclusion, nor is Israel’s engagement with such a Palestinian national unity government should it arise. Continue reading
One week after the elections and what we have right now is a political stalemate without a clear outcome.
Right now we don’t have a government – neither Bibi nor Livni have enough MKs to form a government, since Avigdor Lieberman has not recommended either and who knows what he’ll do come Wednesday at Beit Hanassi. Both Bibi and Livni are trying to entice Lieberman into their camps with promises of ministries and freedom to vote on pertinent issues such as conversions and civil unions. Both Bibi and Livni have promised to topple Hamas once they’re in power – like Lieberman wants. Lieberman would prefer a Likud-led government, but he has problems with the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, which will fight him on state-religion issues and changing the electoral system. Shas’ leader has also called Liberman the Devil. Lieberman didn’t like that at all. The Likud is trying to square that circle now: how to give Lieberman what he wants on civil-religious issues while not radically changing the nature of the country’s religious establishment. Everyone in the big parties wants a Likud-Kadima-Israel Beitenu coalition government of 70 MKs . The fight now is over who heads that government, Bibi or Livni. Even after the elections it’s still Bibi or Livni. Continue reading
The outer wall at Kadima HQ on Gissin Street in Petah Tikva’s industrial neighborhood is still adorned with a very large poster of the party’s founder Ariel Sharon, but that could change soon. Inside the bustling building on Tuesday, a large Sharon poster hung across the main office room where dozens of party activists were working the phones on Election Day, checking in with their counterparts in the field at polling booths countrywide. Across the wall is an election poster showing Sharon on the one side, and Kadima leader Tzipi Livni on the other. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been wiped out of Kadima’s literature and PR material. The party that started with Sharon’s ‘big bang’ and struggled ever since through a barrage of sex scandals, corruption investigations, failed and unfinished wars, has come out the other side stronger that it was when Olmert took charge of the party in 2006. Continue reading
Just a few hours to go before the polls open for Israel’s general election, our fifth in a decade. There are many people who won’t vote, a very small number who will spoil their vote, and a vast amount of people who will only decide who to vote for as they enter the polling booth, and even then not do so with a clear conscience. Choosing the lesser evil is not as thrilling as voting for someone or something you truly believe in. These people, about 30 percent of the electorate, are good, honest folk, who do want to throw away their right to vote just because, at this late stage, they still don’t know who to vote for. I hope they go out to vote and don’t stay home just because they can’t make up their minds. It’s like you know you should buy something with the gift voucher you’ve been given, and you don’t want it to go to waste – it’s only valid on one day every 2 and a half years [technically 4 but hey whose counting?] – but you’re not sure what to get with it. Continue reading
Check out these two new YouTube videos about Binyamin Netanyahu and the Likud:
One is obviously very anti-Bibi, done in the ‘Leave Britney Alone’ mold:
This one is from young Likud Anglo activist Ariel Rodal:
Which one would you vote for?
Pity nobody’s done a “I got a crush on Bibi” yet.
New year, new war.
Some observations:
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is taking the most aggressive approach to Hamas this time round, rejecting ceasefire proposals and saying that when she wins the general elections and becomes Prime Minister, she’ll destroy Hamas. Livni is trying to take moderate voters away from the Likud who may be worried that Netanyahu’s party is too right wing. Livni’s talking tough because a) she is tough [her family hail from pre-state Jewish underground groups] and b) Kadima is lagging in the polls behind Likud, so taking a hard line stance on Hamas should endear her to many on the right. This election will be decided by about 8-10 percent floating voters, most of them to be had between Kadima and Likud. Continue reading
UPDATE: Netanyahu joins Israel’s PR war effort, appearing on FOX News.
Just heard that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert met today with opposition leader Likud MK Binyamin Netanyahu and updated him on the security situation, as is required by law. The Prime Minister’s Office also reports that Olmert asked Netanyahu to step up and help in Israel’s public diplomacy efforts during this round of fighting with Hamas in Gaza.
Netanyahu, a fluent English-speaker with a Harvard degree, is considered the top public speaker in Israel, especially on foreign networks. While Social Affairs Minister Isaac Herzog and President Shimon Peres are no slouches, nobody comes close to Bibi’s clarity and force of argument, regardless of whether one agrees with him or not. Continue reading
Seems everyone is jumping on the ‘I got a crush on Obama’ video.
After a relatively unknown member of Knesset, Sagiv Asulin of the Likud got a pretty fan to do a spoof of the original Obama video. This one’s actually pretty good. Continue reading
The political scene is buzzing today as the Likud announced that former Science Minister Benny Begin, the son of the late Likud leader Menahem Begin, would be making his comeback to politics and rejoining the Likud.
Shunning preferential treatment, Begin apparently did not ask for a slot on the Likud list to be reserved for him, preferring instead to campaign in the upcoming primaries. This decision fits in neatly with Begin’s image as an old-school, clean-cut incorruptible politician, the man who took the bus to work at the Knesset, and not a government Volvo. Continue reading
Knesset speaker Dalia Itzik set the elections for February 10, 2009. That’s about 100 days from now.
Here are a few observations from some of the polls released today.
In a Haaretz Dialogue poll, those asked who is most able to deal with Israel’s security problems, 33 percent of respondents answered Netanyahu, 26 percent said Defense Minister Ehud Barak, head of the Labor Party, and 14 percent said Livni. And this is why Kadima leader Tzipi Livni needs former chief of staff and minister of defense Shaul Mofaz so badly, to bolster her and Kadima’s security credentials. Internal Security Minister Avi Dichter, while seen as a Mr. Security for having served in the secretive Shabak for many years, has taken a beating of late for his handling of the Uri Bar-Lev affair and other police bungles. There is a general sense in the country that Livni, as prime minister, would be tested by the likes of Hizbullah, Hamas and maybe even the Syrians. With Mofaz [as possible Foreign Minister] and Ehud Barak [as Defense Minister] at her side, Livni would look a hell of a lot less vulnerable. Livni also desperately needs Mofaz to be happy with his lot in life and not deepen his animosity for her after her narrow win over him in the Kadima leadership race; she does not need a rebel camp in Kadima. Continue reading
While the real battle between Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz to replace Ehud Olmert as Kadima chairperson and prime minister is taking place amongst the 30,000 Kadima members and not the wider public, the two frontrunners have retained the services of skilled campaign consultants to convince both the party membership and the general public that their candidate is worthy of Israel’s top job.
Livni’s core team consists of kingmakers Reuven Adler and Eyal Arad, the duo that established Kadima for Ariel Sharon and got him elected as Prime Minister. On Mofaz’s side is world-renowned political strategist Arthur Finkelstein. While Livni is ahead in the latest polls, Mofaz is closing the gap, and the momentum seems to be with him, hence Livni’s announcement Monday that she has formally hired Adler and Co. Within the general population, Livni is more popular, but in the crucial Kadima membership, Mofaz is stronger. Livni’s team has until September 17 to stem Mofaz’s surge, while the latter will attempt to keep his momentum going.
Mofaz’s team will position their candidate as Mr. Security, a former IDF Chief of Staff, Minister of Defense, and currently heading the strategic dialogue with the US, whose entire life was spent fighting Israel’s enemies, and as such, the secure candidate to steer the Jewish state through what is undoubtedly very stormy security seas to come.
Livni’s team will position her as a strong Mrs. Clean, as Sharon’s successor, and as someone who can restore the country’s faith in the political system in general, and in Kadima in particular. Kadima was founded on the promise of being different to the corrupt Likud, especially its notorious Central Committee. That image has been largely destroyed by Olmert, Hirshzon, Hanegbi and others. That Livni’s hands are politically clean, after all the corruption that has flooded this country of late, is the foreign minister’s strongest selling point.
