There are a few things very wrong with this piece of news:
Firstly, Matan Vilnai, a former soldier and deputy defense minister, has absolutely no diplomatic experience to speak of. And he doesn’t speak Chinese. I mean, China is not important enough for us to send a career professional diplomat to, right? Vilnai will replace the current ambassador, Amos Nadai, who served as deputy head of the foreign ministry’s Asia department prior to his appointment as ambassador to China. Now THAT’S relevant experience. Continue reading →
According to Krauthammer, Bashar Assad’s fall would “deprive Iran of an intra-Arab staging area and sever its corridor to the Mediterranean. Syria would return to the Sunni fold. Hezbollah, Tehran’s agent in Lebanon, could be next, withering on the vine without Syrian support and Iranian materiel. And Hamas would revert to Egyptian patronage.” Continue reading →
When the Muslim Brotherhood leadership looks around them they see an America in decline – both at home and abroad. They see how the US abandoned Mubarak. They see how America speaks of human rights in Egypt and Tunisia, but don’t apply these principles in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Syria. Continue reading →
Exactly one month ago I wrote this blog post called Will Dara be Bashar’s Hama?
Over the past few days, Bashar Assad has virtually invaded the southern city, surrounded it, and sent in troops to fight house to house. It’s hard to get accurate information of what’s really going on down there, but reports and videos attest to a real bloodbath.
Here’s a video purporting to show Syrian tanks heading to Deraa.
It seems about high time that the international community put a stop to Assad’s crackdown.
Here is the blog post from March 25th:
The news from Syria seems to be getting worse and worse, as various sources are accusing Bashar Assad’s forces of the wholesale killing of pro-democracy protesters across the country, with specific focus on Daraa.
At this point it is worth remembering that in 1982, Bashar’s father Hafez committed one of the 20th Century’s worst mass killings in a town called Hama.
The attack on Hama, in which tens of thousands of Syrians died, has been described as possibly being “the single deadliest act by any Arab government against its own people in the modern Middle East”.
It seems the apple really does not fall far from the tree.
But the young Assad is mistaken if he thinks he can get away with a massacre on the scale of Hama, and even on a much, much smaller scale. In 1982 there was no Youtube, Twitter and Facebook. Whatever is really going on inside Daraa, and other places in Syria, will eventually come out, and Bashar himself, and his officers, will pay the price. Over the past week I have seen footage come out of Syria that I have never seen the likes of before. In fact, footage out of Syria is something Israelis don’t ever see much of.
This for instance: images of protestors attacking a statue of Hafez Assad
What a disappointment Bashar has been. The young doctor, and Western-educated Syrian leader should have ushered in a new dawn for Syria; could have embraced change and modernity. Over the years however, he has done nothing but keep his hold on power, as impressive a feat as that is. There are consistent power and water outages in Damascus; the country is in financial stagnation; his army, while large, is no match for Israel, and his continuous interference in Lebanon has created a powder-keg that threatens to engulf the entire region in war.
Well done Bashar. Now your people will hold you to account. One thing is for sure, Syria will never be the same. The Syrian people have broken the barrier of fear that Hafez Assad, and his son Bashar have worked so hard to keep in place.
Syria’s Bashar Assad, derided as the son even his own father didn’t want to succeed him, is turning out to share many of Hafez’s wily and cautious traits. Despite a series of recent blows to his homeland security (the killings of Hizbullah terror chief Imad Mughniyeh and Syrian military adviser Muhammad Suleiman, the IAF’s destruction of his nascent nuclear plant, and an American Special Forces raid on his border with Iraq), Assad junior is managing to keep a steady hand on the reins of power.
Early intelligence assessments that he would prove a weak and perhaps even quickly disposable successor have been disproved.
Assad Jr. is plainly looking to the long-term. He has accounts to settle with several players in the region, but for the moment he’s playing it cool. And for this, and his indirect talks with Israel, the West, and notably France, have rewarded him with greater acceptance. Continue reading →
The closer Israel and Syria get to direct peace talks, the more aggressive those opposed to that deal seem to become, and Assad is taking some serious hits to his administration. What has always held true, that there is a strong government in Syria that can sign, implement and maintain a peace accord with Israel, is starting to come undone. The assassinations of Imad Mughniyeh and Mohammed Suleiman have seriously embarrassed the Assad regime. The message that these two events sends, both to the internal Syrian audience, and to the wider Arab public, is that Assad is not in complete control of his country, that he is on shaky ground. If this is truly the case, and somebody is working to destabilize the Assad regime, then the prospects that the latest round of Syrian-Israel peace talks could lead to a breakthrough, and that peace could be maintained, are diminished. Which, of course, could be the real aim of whoever is behind the attempts to rattle the Syrian government. Peace between Israel and Syria would open the door for other Arab states to do the same. Syria’s benefit would be greater integration with the West, moving away from the axis of evil, and isolating Iran [who would be left alone on that axis with North Korea].
Assad needs to find out who assassinated these men on his soil, and quick. He needs to show his country that everything is under control, that his regime is stable. Problem is, the hidden hand behind the assassinations could belong to his biggest ally and only real friend right now, Iran. If this is the case, Tehran is sending a very strong message to Damascus: the further you progress with Israel, the closer you come to losing your head. Iran would love it if Suleiman’s assassins turned out to be Israeli, and already their state media is spinning that story. Iran has an enormous interest in framing Israel for the assassination: It’s scared to death of Syrian-Israeli-Arab world peace.
Or, the hand behind Assad’s woes may belong to Israel’s Mossad, in which case the indirect talks mediated by Turkey will most likely be called off. In any case, Assad’s security apparatus has been infiltrated to a very high degree. You don’t just blow up the car of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus and gun down Mohammed Suleiman [Assad's military advisor] in Tartus without intimate knowledge of these men’s whereabouts. Israel had a long score to settle with Mughniyeh, and killing Suleiman could somewhat disrupt Syria’s weapons transfers to Hizbullah, of which he was in charge. In terms of Israel: Mughniyeh maybe, Suleiman – highly unlikely.
In addition to this, somewhere down the line, Assad’s regime is likely to face its stiffest challenge: the probe into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. If the UN tribunal investigating that incident accuses elements of Assad’s regime, and perhaps those closest to Assad himself, the Syrian leader may start feeling like he has very few friends left.
Here is the latest news about the reaction on the Golan Heights to the attendance of the Syrian deputy foreign minister at the Annapolis conference: a new leisure resort park has been established near the Amir Junction, the new B’not Yaakov bridge has been completed, work on road 98 from the Magshimim Junction to the Bashan Junction is close to completion, an entrepreneurial course for women in the Golan has opened up, a new course to train the area’s community leaders kicked off, a new population absorption campaign has been launched, new playgrounds have been built in several communities, and the municipal pools in several communities finally closed after a long, hot summer. In the community of Hadnes near the Sea of Galilee overlooking the JordanValley, 150 housing units have been made available to eager residents, with the option of building two guest lodges per property to give the homeowner an extra source of income and encourage tourism to the area.
Residents of the Golan Heights can be forgiven for not getting too excited about talk of returning the Golan to Syria and a resumption of the Syrian-Israeli track – they’ve heard it before, at several peace conferences during the past few decades.
Now, Damascus has said it is sending its deputy Foreign Minister to the Annapolis conference, signaling a possible shift in its close relationship with Iran, who was not invited to the peace parley.
Iran and Syria have grown very close over the past few years, despite the different ethnic constituents [Iran is Shi'ite] and Syria is ruled by the minority Alawites. What brought them together were their perceived common enemies: America and Israel. It will be interesting to watch Tehran’s reaction to this turn of events.
So, based on today’s developments, this is what Syria’s official Facebook profile would look like if it had one [Thanks to Ricky Ben-David for the illustration]:
The Syrian Arab Republic is…
Going to Annapolis
Networks: Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas, PFLP, North Korea, Axis of Evil
Interested in: The Golan Heights; The Lebanese Presidential election; Whatever I can get
Relationship status: Its complicated: Is in a relationship with Iran, but is looking to see other people because Iran is on a collision course with most of the world
Looking for: A way out of the Axis of Evil
Notification: Syria has joined the group: Peace Conference in Annapolis
